Brazil coffee prices rise amid slow harvest

According to Conab's weekly market analysis, the slow pace of the 2026 harvest continues to limit domestic stocks and coffee availability for export.

Arabica prices on the New York exchange declined on average during the week despite a Friday recovery, while robusta prices in London remained more stable and posted a slight increase.

Supply concerns persist amid tight global stocks and expectations that El Niño could affect the 2026/27 production cycle, potentially changing rainfall and temperatures in major producing countries, including Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia.

Meanwhile, Brazil is heading toward a strong coffee harvest. Conab forecasts production at 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags, up 18% from 2025, with arabica output expected to rise 28% to 45.7 million bags.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects an even larger 2026/27 crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% from the previous season. Arabica production is forecast at 47.5 million bags, a 25% increase.

Brazil exported approximately 20.8 million bags between January and July 2026, down 12.2% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Export revenue fell 16.3% to around $7.5 billion.

Coffee exports are expected to strengthen in the second half of 2026 as the larger harvest reaches the market and foreign demand remains strong.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) projected an 18% increase in coffee production for the 2026 harvest to a record 66.7 million bags, surpassing the previous record of 63.8 million bags set in 2020.