Over 70% of Kazakhstanis ready to vote in Qurultay elections – poll review

The comparative analysis shows that throughout the campaign, voter readiness has remained consistently high, while the number of undecided voters has declined and party preferences have become clearer.

"All seven surveys, despite differences in timing, methodology, and sample size, show similar levels of voter readiness," KazISS said.

According to DATAMetrics, 75.6% of respondents said they intended to vote. Two surveys by the Institute of Eurasian Integration showed 72.1% and 73.2%, and polls by KIPD recorded 75.1% and 70.3%. The Institute of Public Policy reported 72.3%, and the Institute of Democracy recorded 73.1%.

Thus, electoral activity ranges from 70.3% to 75.6%, with a difference of just 5.3 percentage points between the lowest and highest figures. This points to a stable trend: throughout the campaign, roughly seven in ten or more respondents have declared their intention to go to the polls.

Socio-demographic data shows higher electoral activity among older voters. According to KIPD, readiness among voters aged 60+ reaches 80.7%, compared to 69.4% among those aged 18–29. Citizens with higher education also show higher readiness to vote.

One of the most notable trends of the past two months has been the shrinking number of undecided voters.

In the DATAMetrics survey (commissioned by KazISS), conducted from June 13 to July 2, 22.6% of respondents were undecided about their party choice. This figure fell to 14.2% in the first Institute of Eurasian Integration survey, to 10.9% in the KIPD phone poll, to 8.4% in the second survey by the Institute of Eurasian Integration, and to 5.3% in the most recent survey by the Institute of Public Policy.

This shows that between the first and last surveys, the share of undecided voters dropped by 17.3 percentage points – more than four times.

The trend suggests a gradual consolidation of voter preferences as election day approaches, driven by growing public awareness and the activation of party information and campaigning efforts.

High voter awareness is confirmed by the most recent survey. According to the Institute of Public Policy, 89.4% of respondents are aware of the upcoming August 23 elections: 55.2% said they are well informed, while 34.2% have heard about the elections but lack detailed knowledge.

"A comparison of survey results shows Adilet's consistent lead. Its support rose from 54.2% in the KazISS survey conducted from June 13 to July 2 to 70.3% in the Institute of Democracy survey from July 20 to August 6 – a 16.1 percentage point increase. Auyl holds second place across all comparable surveys, with support ranging from 5.1% to 7.3%.

The rankings of other parties have shifted within relatively narrow margins, while the question of how many and which parties will ultimately make it into the Qurultay remains open," the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies added.

The poll data indicates ongoing competition for third and fourth place between Ak Zhol and Respublica. A separate competitive dynamic is emerging between the People's Party of Kazakhstan and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party – the only opposition party in the current race.

The main dynamic of the period is attributed not so much to a reshuffling of party rankings as to the shrinking number of undecided voters and the strengthening of the leading party's position.

At the same time, multiple factors influence voter choice. According to the Institute of Public Policy survey, 44.4% of respondents are guided by a positive assessment of a party's initiatives, 29.2% identify as party supporters, 25.3% associate Kazakhstan's future with their chosen party, and 14.7% pay attention to how the party engages with voters.

Throughout the campaign, sociological dynamics have been at the center of expert discussions. From July 8 to August 13, KazISS hosted seven expert platforms in Astana, Almaty, Petropavl, and Oskemen.

On July 8, the expert platform "Qurultay Elections: Constitutional Foundations and Political Transformation" was held in Astana. On July 16, "Qurultay – The Foundation of a New Architecture of the Legislative Branch" took place in Almaty. On July 23, the national expert platform "KazISS GPS: Gylym. Pikir. Sayasat" (KazISS GPS: Science. Opinion. Politics) in Petropavl discussed Kazakhstan's new constitutional architecture from a regional perspective.

On July 30 in Astana, experts examined the role of media and digital platforms in the "Sailau 2026" (Election 2026) campaign, and on August 4 in Oskemen, they discussed the place of regions in the new political configuration. The cycle continued with two expert platforms on August 13 in Almaty – "Election 2026: The Nature of the Political Campaign" and "Party Competition: Ideas, Programs, and the Battle for Voters."

Expert discussions covered public sentiment, voter behavior, regional campaign specifics, party competition, TV debates, digital communications, and factors influencing voter choice.

"The current campaign is taking place in a unique political context – following the adoption of the new Constitution and the formation of a new representative architecture. Therefore, the consistently high declared readiness to vote can be seen in the context of public expectations for the new Qurultay and the country's continued political transformation," KazISS said.

Over the past five years, Kazakhstan has undergone several electoral campaigns and national political processes. Regular appeals to the will of voters are gradually embedding the practice of direct citizen engagement in political processes.

"In this context, the Qurultay elections become not just another electoral campaign but an essential milestone in the formation of a new political culture, where civic participation, party competition, public debate, and conscious electoral choice are gaining ever greater significance.

Despite the summer period, data from all seven surveys suggest high electoral activity on August 23. However, the main change over the past two months has not been the rise in declared voter readiness – which remained high throughout – but the significant reduction in the number of undecided citizens. As the elections approach, the electoral picture is becoming increasingly clear," KazISS concluded.

On July 1, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev decreed that elections to the Qurultay of the Republic of Kazakhstan would be held on August 23, 2026. The Central Election Commission approved the calendar plan for the preparation and conduct of the elections, as well as the list of political parties eligible to participate in the elections.