Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Data points to Spain

The expanded 48-team tournament will feature 104 matches and a new Round of 32 format, making forecasting more challenging than ever. To assess each team's chances, Opta simulated the tournament 10,000 times using team strength ratings, recent performances and historical data.

Spain tops the projections

Spain emerged as the favorite, winning 16.1% of all simulations. La Roja was also the only team with a greater than 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and reached the semifinals in 39% of projected tournaments.

The European champions arrive with one of the most balanced squads in international football. Barcelona star Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Pedri and Nico Williams headline a team that has remained among Europe's strongest since winning Euro 2024.

"The Opta supercomputer has picked Spain as its pre-tournament favorites to win the World Cup," the analysis said.

If successful, Spain would lift its second World Cup trophy, 16 years after its triumph in South Africa.

France and England close behind

France ranks second in Opta's projections with a 13% chance of becoming world champion. Didier Deschamps' side reached the final in both 2018 and 2022 and continues to rely on a star-studded squad led by captain Kylian Mbappé. France reached the final in 21.3% of Opta's simulations.

England follows closely at 11.2%. Under Thomas Tuchel, the Three Lions completed a flawless qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches without conceding a goal. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka lead a squad many believe is England's strongest in years.

After finishing runner-up at the last two European Championships, England hopes to end a 60-year wait for a major international trophy.

Argentina seeks to defend title

Defending champion Argentina remains firmly among the favorites. Opta gives Lionel Scaloni's side a 10.4% chance of retaining the trophy and an 18.1% chance of reaching the final.

Much attention will focus on Lionel Messi, who is expected to play in what could be his final World Cup. The Inter Miami star will be supported by Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez and Enzo Fernández as Argentina attempts to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend a World Cup title.

Brazil, Portugal and Germany remain contenders

Behind the leading four sits another group of traditional powers.

Portugal is given a 7.0% chance of winning the tournament, Brazil 6.6%, and Germany 5.1%.

Portugal enters the competition after winning the UEFA Nations League and could see Cristiano Ronaldo become the first player to appear in six World Cups. Brazil begins a new chapter under Carlo Ancelotti, while Germany hopes to return to the elite level after a decade of disappointing tournament performances.

Polymarket predictions

Prediction markets largely support the statistical forecasts.

According to Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, France is currently viewed as the most likely champion with a 17.1% probability. Spain follows at 16.4%, while England stands at 11.2%.

Portugal is listed at 9.6%, ahead of Argentina at 9% and Brazil at 8%. Germany is given a 6% chance, followed by the Netherlands at 4%, Norway at 3% and Belgium at 2%.

The close alignment between Opta's model and Polymarket suggests a growing consensus regarding the tournament's leading contenders.

Dark horses to watch

Several teams outside the traditional powers could make deep runs.

The Netherlands and Norway are each given roughly a 3.5% chance of winning the World Cup. Norway enters the tournament in impressive form, led by striker Erling Haaland, who scored 16 goals during qualifying.

Morocco, the surprise semifinalist in Qatar four years ago, remains Africa's highest-rated team, while Colombia has emerged as a dangerous outsider after reaching the 2024 Copa América final.

While football rarely follows predictions perfectly, the current data paints a clear picture. Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the team to beat, with France, England and Argentina forming the closest group of challengers. Yet in a tournament featuring 48 nations and more than 100 matches, surprises remain inevitable, ensuring one of the most open World Cups in recent history.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is expected to introduce a new generation of football stars to the global stage, highlighting 15 young players to watch at the tournament.