WMO warns El Niño likely to develop in coming months
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are likely to influence weather patterns across the globe in the coming months, bringing an increased risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rains and other extreme weather events, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs every 2 to 7 years and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. While its impacts vary from event to event, it typically alters rainfall and temperature patterns around the world.
According to the latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, there is an 80% probability that El Niño will emerge between June and August 2026. Forecasts indicate the phenomenon is highly likely to persist through at least November, with probabilities close to or above 90%. Most climate models suggest the event will reach at least moderate strength and could become strong.
The UN weather agency said unusually warm ocean waters are driving the development of El Niño. Observations from late April to mid-May showed sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific approaching El Niño thresholds. At the same time, subsurface ocean temperatures were recorded at more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, providing a large reservoir of heat that continues to warm surface waters.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the approaching event as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño would intensify the effects of an already warming planet and increase the likelihood of severe weather impacts across borders and regions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments and communities should prepare for a potentially strong event that could worsen droughts, trigger heavier rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves on land and in the oceans. She noted that the 2023-24 El Niño was among the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
The WMO said El Niño is often associated with wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. In contrast, drier-than-normal weather is commonly seen in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
Regional climate outlooks already point to potential impacts. Forecasts indicate below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the June-September rainy season. South Asia is also expected to receive less monsoon rainfall than usual, while Central America is likely to experience warmer and drier conditions.
Alongside the El Niño update, the WMO released a Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasting above-average temperatures across nearly all regions of the world during June, July and August. The agency warned that widespread heat could increase health risks, worsen drought conditions in some areas and contribute to more extreme weather events.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that President Tokayev discussed the artificial precipitation project and water security with WMO President.
