Will Kulibayev sell Halyk Bank – expert opinion

“Despite recent transactions where Halyk Bank divested its subsidiaries in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and a notable 7.5% drop in the bank's shares, Timur Kulibayev has little interest in selling due to the bank's stability,” notes Rysmambetov.

The financier mentioned the sale of minor subsidiaries in smaller markets, emphasizing that these sales to “friendly” structures will not affect regional trade and payment dynamics. He speculated that Halyk Bank might focus on expanding in the Uzbekistan market to support Kazakh businessmen who require more credit funds for further development.

“Regarding the Russian subsidiary - Moskommertsbank, it's important to recognize that it is not a subsidiary of Halyk Bank in the traditional sense. Initially, this bank was primarily owned by Kazkommertsbank,” explains Rysmambetov.

The expert stated that he does not foresee any immediate sale of Halyk Bank itself, highlighting its development potential and the critical role it plays in business lending, spurred by state directives to support business financing.

Furthermore, Rysmambetov noted that no qualified individuals in Kazakhstan are interested in obtaining even a 10% share in Halyk Bank. He attributed this to the substantial dedication and experience needed to oversee such a large enterprise as well as a generally cautious investment environment influenced by the political and economic conditions.

“Many billionaires who accumulated substantial wealth in the past, potentially leveraging administrative resources, are now hesitant to invest due to fears of losing their existing assets. They are concerned about the possibility of a significant 'redistribution.' As a result, they are currently refusing long-term investments,” says Rassul Rysmambetov.

The speaker also noted that Timur Kulibayev's departure from his position as chairman of the KazEnergy association, which includes oil, gas, and energy sectors, was expected due to his supervisory role. He was not engaged in the daily activities of the association. It appears he has now decided to step down to make room for new leadership.

“His name was also tied to hydrocarbon materials and companies. Perhaps it's an opportune moment to shift focus towards promoting green energy and other environmentally friendly fuels,” the speaker adds.

Lastly, changes in the board of directors at the Joint Resources holding, which controls Kulibayev's raw materials assets, including the replacement of the chairman Raushan Sagdieva by Rakhmet Khairyllaev, was seen by Rysmambetov as a strategic adjustment, appointing individuals with relevant industry experience to lead the company forward in its operations within the oil and gas sector.