Why 2027 could change Kazakhstan’s energy balance

Following instructions from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev given at an expanded government meeting on January 28, 2025, authorities are working to drive the systematic development of the power sector and raise infrastructure reliability to a new level.

Government measures, led by the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, focus on increasing installed capacity, launching large-scale modernization projects and new generation facilities, and establishing a sustainable investment framework to enhance reliability and energy security.

According to the Ministry of Energy, Kazakhstan will fully cover domestic electricity demand by the end of the first quarter of 2027 and reach a steady surplus by 2029.

Current state of the power system

Following the launch of new facilities, Kazakhstan’s power system has expanded to 241 energy sources, 162 of them renewable.

Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said that projects already under way will meet the economy’s electricity needs in the medium term.

“The ministry is implementing several major projects that will allow Kazakhstan to fully meet electricity demand by 2027, with a stable surplus expected by 2029. On the President’s instructions, a clean-coal generation development project is being prepared, including plans to build a new power plant in Kurchatov and Ekibastuz GRES-3. At the same time, existing infrastructure is being upgraded. In 2026 alone, more than 2.6 GW of new capacity is expected to come online. All these efforts are aimed at ensuring the reliability, efficiency, and sustainability of the national power system,” Akkenzhenov said.

Total installed capacity stood at 26.7 GW by the end of 2025, up 1.4 GW from the previous year. Most generation comes from traditional sources, including coal (13.8 GW), gas (6.8 GW), large hydropower (2.5 GW), and renewables (3.6 GW), a balance that supports stability and gradual diversification.

Plan through 2035: Over 26 GW of new capacity

Work continues under the Energy Sector Development Plan through 2035, which envisages commissioning more than 26 GW of new generation, including:

• 5 GW from modernization and expansion of existing plants;

• 10.5 GW from new conventional generation;

• 8.4 GW from renewable energy projects;

• 2.4 GW from a nuclear power plant.

Balancing modernization of existing assets with new construction enables reliable power supply in line with the President’s objectives, even as the economy grows at an accelerated pace.

Flexible generation as a priority

One of the key priorities in the sector’s development has been the expansion of flexible generation. About 31.4% of new capacity is allocated to segments that provide load regulation and grid flexibility. This includes hydropower plants totaling 1.17 GW, combined-cycle gas turbine units with 5.6 GW, and Ekibastuz GRES-3, where 1.5 GW of its 2.64 GW capacity will perform flexible functions.

Projects nearing completion include Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plants in Kyzylorda region (240 MW) and Turkistan region (1,000 MW), as well as gas conversion projects at Almaty’s CHPs with a combined capacity of 1,101 MW. Over the next three years, new capacity additions will be primarily focused on addressing the shortage of balancing capacity.

Renewables and energy storage

Renewable energy development is being paired with energy storage systems. Large RES projects include storage facilities with total capacity exceeding 3 GWh, enabling surplus power to be stored during low demand and used at peak times, strengthening grid resilience.

Investment: Turning plans into projects

A total of 81 projects with a combined capacity of 15.3 GW and overall investment of 13.1 trillion tenge are currently at an active implementation stage. These include:

• 30 conventional generation projects with a total capacity of 10.2 GW;

• 51 renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 5.1 GW.

In 2024, the Ministry of Energy signed 14 investment agreements with power producers, covering a total capacity of around 2 GW. In 2025, two additional agreements totaling 775.9 MW were concluded. This marked a restart of the investment cycle and a restoration of the sector’s economic attractiveness.

Auction mechanisms and new CCGT projects

As part of auction-based selection for flexible generation, four combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) projects totaling about 1.8 GW are under way in Turkistan, Ulytau, and Kyzylorda regions, as well as Almaty.

In addition, the latest round of auctions held in August 2024 selected CCGT projects in Zhambyl, Aktobe, and Atyrau regions with a combined capacity of 700 MW, scheduled for completion in 2028. In December 2025, auctions were also held for the construction of a 500 MW CCGT plant in Astana.

This year will also see the completion of a major environmental project—the conversion of Almaty CHP-2 and CHP-3 to natural gas.

Coal generation and strategic decisions

On the President’s instructions, a clean-coal power development program is being prepared, covering facilities with a combined capacity of 7.6 GW.

Proven reserves of thermal coal total 33.6 billion tonnes, allowing coal generation to be considered a long-term component of the country’s energy mix.

Tenders held in late 2025 and early this year marked a historic milestone for the sector.

A winner has been selected for the construction of Ekibastuz GRES-3 with a capacity of 2,640 MW, scheduled for commissioning between 2029 and 2032.

A contract has also been signed to build a 700 MW coal-fired power plant in Kurchatov. In addition, CHP projects are under way in Kokshetau, Semey, and Oskemen.

In 2026, major overhauls are planned for nine power units, 55 boilers, and 51 turbines, which is expected to reduce the average wear of CHP plants nationwide from 61% to 59%.

Phased capacity additions and move to surplus

In 2024, 771 MW of new capacity was commissioned, followed by 669 MW in 2025. Around 2.6 GW is planned to come online in 2026, with about 1 GW expected in 2027.

According to the Ministry of Energy, this will allow Kazakhstan to fully meet the economy’s electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

In 2028, an additional 3.9 GW is expected to be commissioned, followed by around 5.7 GW in 2029. This will create a surplus not only of electricity but also of balancing capacity, paving the way for increased export potential.

Reform economics and the energy backbone

A key driver of the sector’s development has been the revamped Tariff in Exchange for Investment program, under which the annual investment return cap was raised from 32 billion to 428 billion tenge. To date, 25 investment agreements have been signed.

Since the program was launched, private companies have not paid dividends, opting to reinvest all funds in the refurbishment and modernization of existing power plant equipment.

To ensure the reliable operation of Kazakhstan’s national power grid, work is actively under way to strengthen the country’s energy backbone.

At the same time, several strategic grid projects are being implemented, including:

• reinforcement of the southern power networks;

• integration of West Kazakhstan’s power system with the unified national power grid. These works are proceeding on schedule and are expected to be completed in the second half of 2027.

One of the most promising initiatives is the Caspian Green Energy Corridor, signed by the heads of state of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku. A joint venture involving all three system operators has already been established, and work is ongoing.

Overall, the implementation of the President’s directives on power sector development is shaping a resilient and balanced national energy framework. The phased commissioning of new capacity, modernization of existing generation, and rollout of investment mechanisms are not only mitigating deficit risks but also supporting dynamic economic growth.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Kazakhstan is set to construct its second nuclear power plant in the Almaty region following a Government resolution signed by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov on January 26.