What really brought down the Dzungar Khanate?
The collapse of the Dzungar Khanate, the last great nomadic empire in Eurasia, may have been caused not only by war but also by a deadly combination of famine, smallpox, and worsening environmental conditions, according to a new study published in Science Advances, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
Researchers reconstructed environmental conditions across the Dzungar heartland using hundreds of tree-ring samples dating back to the 17th century. They found that grasslands reached their lowest productivity in nearly 400 years between 1751 and 1761, the same period in which the khanate collapsed.
The authors say the decline in pasture left livestock without enough grazing land, triggering widespread famine. Historical records cited in the study describe half the population fleeing because of hunger, while those who remained lacked livestock and even seeds for planting.
According to the researchers, the crisis unfolded in stages. In the 1740s, growing trade and travel helped spread the first major recorded smallpox outbreak among Dzungar merchant caravans. At the time, favorable environmental conditions allowed the state to absorb the shock.
The situation changed dramatically after 1751, when pasture conditions deteriorated. Famine, political instability, and the collapse of trade weakened the state, while hunger and malnutrition made people more vulnerable to disease. As refugees and armed groups moved across the steppe, smallpox spread rapidly, becoming the worst epidemic in the khanate's history. Historical accounts estimate the disease killed about 160,000 people.
The study says the epidemic struck as the Qing Dynasty launched military campaigns against the weakened state. By 1757, the Dzungar Khanate had collapsed, and by 1759 the Qing had taken control of its territory. The researchers estimate that warfare and smallpox caused more than 400,000 deaths between 1755 and 1759, roughly 70% of the region's population. About 40% of the deaths were linked to smallpox, 30% to armed conflict, and 20% to forced migration.
The authors conclude that environmental decline alone did not bring down the empire. Instead, shrinking pasture, famine, political turmoil, disease, and war reinforced one another, turning an environmental crisis into the collapse of the Dzungar Khanate and marking the end of the nomadic empires that had dominated much of Eurasia for centuries.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that archaeologists in southern Kazakhstan uncovered a series of significant historical structures and artifacts dating from the 13th to the 18th centuries.
