New Constitution: How the referendum is shaping Kazakhstan’s political trajectory

In an interview with Qazinform, Stefano Vernole, Vice President of the Italian Center for Mediterranean and Eurasian Studies, described the reform as a step toward a more mature social and political framework focused on youth, science, innovation, and national unity.

— Since the adoption of the new Constitution, discussions in Kazakhstan increasingly touch not only on institutional matters but also on the broader social significance of the reform. Can this be seen as an attempt to give the country’s political development a wider social foundation?

— I view this step not as a routine update of legal norms, but as an effort to recalibrate the political system in line with the needs of modern Kazakhstan. This is a country with a relatively young state that must simultaneously modernize, strengthen public participation, and engage a broader segment of the population in economic and social development. In this sense, the referendum becomes part of a larger process of structural realignment.

I would particularly emphasize that the reform aims not only to change institutions but also to limit informal centers of influence that in the past may have exerted excessive sway over politics. For this reason, this step can be regarded as an important element in improving the political environment.

President Tokayev’s approach deserves positive assessment here, as it links state renewal not only to administrative efficiency but also to the need to give the country’s development a broader societal base.

— The referendum has become more than just a legal procedure; it is a direct appeal to society on the future structure of the state. How important is this approach for fostering a more mature civic culture and a sense of national identity?

— Absolutely. A referendum itself is one of the most common ways to engage citizens on fundamental issues. It is a clear and widely recognized mechanism that allows not just for announcing a reform but for linking it directly to the expressed will of society. For Kazakhstan, this is particularly important because it is not just about the procedure, it is about cultivating a more mature political culture.

In my view, the significance of the referendum also lies in its role in strengthening national unity and shaping a more modern civic identity. When society is engaged in decisions of this scale, the focus gradually shifts from narrow group interests to a nationwide agenda. In this sense, Kazakhstan’s approach appears constructive and forward looking, emphasizing citizen participation in strategic decisions rather than merely administrative implementation of change.

— In a complex international environment, the right of countries to independently determine the pace and model of internal reforms becomes especially important. To what extent can Kazakhstan’s new Constitution be seen as an expression of a sovereign path in political development?

— For the citizens of Kazakhstan, this can certainly be a positive factor, as participating in constitutional changes strengthens the sense of involvement in a key state process. When people see that rules are being updated not behind closed doors but with public confirmation, it reinforces the perception of the reform as a shared undertaking.

On the international stage, the picture is more complicated. Evaluations depend not only on the content of the reforms but also on the geopolitical perspective of each country. Some view it as every nation’s right to choose its own path of transformation, provided it does not violate basic international principles. Others assess such processes through more rigid ideological frameworks. Reactions to what is happening in Kazakhstan will therefore vary. This is precisely why it is especially important for the country to maintain its own course and demonstrate that the reforms are driven by internal development logic rather than external pressure.

— Today, external interest in Kazakhstan is driven not only by its resources but also by its position in the broader Eurasian geopolitical landscape. Can the constitutional reform strengthen the perception of Kazakhstan as a state capable of combining internal modernization with external independence?

— That effect is certainly possible, although Europe’s interest in Kazakhstan is primarily strategic. It concerns transport routes, energy, resources, and the broader restructuring of the Eurasian space. European partners are therefore closely monitoring developments in Kazakhstan in any case.

In this context, the new Constitution can serve as an additional argument for deepening cooperation if it is seen as a sign of the state’s internal cohesion and readiness for further renewal. Equally important, however, is that Kazakhstan maintains the ability to pursue a flexible, multi-vector policy, keeping working relations with different centers of power. So far, this approach appears to be one of Kazakhstan’s strengths, allowing the country not to be absorbed into others’ strategies while defending its own interests.

— After the events of recent years, the question of how stable and cohesive the state structure is has become particularly important. Can the new constitutional model respond to the demand for greater internal stability and political manageability?

— Yes, because this is not about a piecemeal change but a structural recalibration of the entire system. Key elements of the reform include the shift to a single-chamber parliament, the creation of the Khalyk Kenesi, the reinstatement of the Vice President’s office, the strengthening of the Constitutional Court’s role, and an emphasis on expanding citizens’ rights protections. Taken together, these measures appear to be an effort to make the state structure more cohesive and better able to respond to internal and external challenges.

For Kazakhstan, this is particularly important following the upheavals of 2022, which highlighted the significance of stable institutions and the state’s ability to quickly restore balance. The modernization initiated by President Tokayev can indeed strengthen the country’s position in Eurasia. The political meaning of the reform is also significant: President Tokayev is aiming to make the course of renewal systemic rather than temporary, which is what makes his approach especially important.

— Looking ahead, can the new Constitution be seen not only as a tool for institutional renewal but also for maintaining balance in a multiethnic and multifaith society, which is especially important for Kazakhstan’s long-term development?

— Yes, that perspective is entirely realistic. The higher a state’s level of internal sovereignty, the greater its room for maneuver in foreign policy. In a developing multipolar world, this is particularly important, as regional states gain more opportunities to act independently, but only if they are grounded in a solid internal political and economic foundation.

For Kazakhstan, it is fundamentally important to maintain internal equilibrium and prevent radical or overly nationalist tendencies from destabilizing the social fabric. If the country continues to develop as a multiethnic and multifaith state, actively countering extreme forms of political extremism, its prospects look very favorable. In this regard, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s approach to preserving the country’s multicultural and multireligious character appears farsighted. More broadly, Kazakhstan’s policies leave a positive impression as a course toward stability, independence, and mature state development.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that a foreign expert called the referendum a key element in reform legitimacy