Kazakhstan targets broad-based economic growth in 2026
The Kazakh Government reviewed GDP growth projections for 2026, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport expected to drive expansion, Qazinform News Agency cites primeminister.kz.
Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin chaired the meeting on Monday to discuss forecasts for socio-economic development and GDP growth in 2026.
It is expected that the main drivers of economic growth next year will be manufacturing, construction, transport and warehousing, trade, and the production of food and beverages.
In 2025, the manufacturing sector’s physical volume index (PVI) is estimated to rise by 6%, while the target for 2026 under the 2029 National Development Plan has been set at 6.2%.
Metallurgy, the backbone of manufacturing, is projected to grow by 3% in 2026, driven largely by newly launched plants reaching full capacity, including Kyzyl Aray Copper, EkibastuzFerroAlloys, Kazferro Limited, and Shagala Mining. In ferrous metallurgy, the plan aims to boost the production of ferroalloys, steel, flat-rolled products, and pig iron, while expanding output in gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc within the non-ferrous segment.
Mechanical engineering is forecast to expand by 13.4% in 2026, supported by a 17% rise in automobile production following the launch of Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan and KIA Qazaqstan facilities. Agricultural machinery production is also expected to grow by 5%.
It is noteworthy that in 2025, Kazakhstan is expected to produce 436,500 household appliances, which is over 1.5 times higher than in the previous year. Kazakhstan's key producers of home electronics are Silk Road Electronics, Almaty Turmystyq Tehnika Zavody, and DS Multimedia CA. The sector targets a 50% YOY increase in 2026.
The chemical industry is forecast to grow by 7% in 2026, supported by new capacities for sulfuric acid, sodium cyanide, hydrogen peroxide, and liquid glass.
In the production of construction materials, domestic producers accounted for 70% of the internal market in 2025. A PVI growth of 6% is expected in 2026, driven by increased output of Portland cement, ceramic tiles, reinforced concrete products, and ready-mix concrete. Cement production is set for a record-breaking volume in 2025. In 2026, growth is to continue as plants reach their full design capacities.
Trade turnover is projected to reach 80.3 trillion tenge (+14,6%) in 2025. The 2026 trade target is 92.4 trillion tenge, increasing 106,5% YOY.
This growth will be driven by maintaining current levels of oil and petroleum product output, launching large-scale programs for processing food and non-food goods, and the full-scale operation of four major B2B platforms focused on wholesale export trade, including the China-oriented direction.
Agriculture is also expected to show strong performance in 2026, particularly in food and beverage production, with projected growth of 9% and 9.3%, respectively.
Following the meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister instructed central government bodies to prepare sector-specific roadmaps for the first quarter of 2026. The plans will focus on achieving industrial growth targets, executing key investment and infrastructure projects, identifying additional growth reserves, and ensuring sustainable expansion in agriculture, trade, and transport.
As Qazinform reported earlier, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that Kazakhstan’s GDP is set to exceed USD 300 billion for the first time.
