Kazakhstan as a “bridge state” amid total uncertainty

According to the expert, the year 2025 will enter the history of world diplomacy as part of the times of total uncertainty, a period characterized by the erosion of the established world order, escalation of confrontation between great powers and fragmentation of the global community. Against this backdrop, many states were forced to shift to situational, reactive policy and manual diplomacy.

“However, few of them demonstrated a strategy as calibrated and proactive as Kazakhstan. Indeed, in 2025 our country in practice showed its traditional multi-vector foreign policy. A series of high-level visits to capitals and meetings with the heads of competing world powers, I would note, was organized. The President sought to maintain strategic balance among these centers of power, personally reaffirming commitment to friendship and partnership with each side. At closer examination, it becomes clear that the term balance or equidistance is an inaccurate simplification. Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is not a symmetric balance but rather complex management of asymmetric and uneven portfolios of relations, where each partner performs a strictly defined and often nonoverlapping function within the overall architecture of Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and security,” Mustafin comments.

Thus, on August 30 to September 3, 2025, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made an official visit to China. During the trip, he not only held bilateral talks but also took part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin.

In Beijing on September 2, the President spoke at the Kazakh Chinese Business Council and held meetings with heads of major Chinese corporations, where prospects for investment and trade were discussed. The visit delivered tangible economic results.

“For example, following the business forum, more than 70 commercial agreements worth over 15 billion dollars were signed. The total volume of Chinese investment in Kazakhstan’s economy has already reached $27 billion. The President expressed confidence that this figure will grow. He particularly emphasized the strategic importance of developing the China-Europe transit corridor through Kazakhstan, whose capacity should increase fivefold. In addition, together with Chinese partners, a new plant for the production of wind turbine components was launched in the Zhambyl Region, and cultural centers strengthening humanitarian ties between the two countries were opened. The Head of State called China a reliable and proven strategic partner and stated that relations between the two countries have entered a new golden period of development. He demonstratively noted that Beijing never puts forward political conditions in cooperation, that is, he made a subtle reference to the principle of equality,” the political scientist asserts.

As the expert emphasizes, the warm words of the Kazakh leader received a response. Chairman Xi Jinping highly praised the dynamics of relations and expressed readiness “to move forward hand in hand in promoting multilateral cooperation so that China-Kazakhstan ties would make an even greater contribution to the development of the region and the world as a whole”.

Two months after strengthening the eastern vector, President Tokayev headed to Washington, D.C. where on November 6, 2025, the first-ever summit of the leaders of Central Asia and the United States in the C5+1 format took place. The visit marked a new stage in the partnership between Kazakhstan and the United States.

“It is notable that the Head of State publicly thanked President Trump for hosting the summit, calling the meeting the beginning of “a truly new era in the partnership between Central Asia and America”. Characterizing Kassym-Jomart Kemelyevich’s diplomatic style, one cannot fail to note his ability to speak in a language understandable to the interlocutor. Addressing Trump, he praised “the wise and bold policy” of the American leader and said, “Your far-sighted course to revive America inspires me to implement a large scale strategy of building a Just and Strong Kazakhstan”. But such courtesies were accompanied by quite concrete results. In Washington Kazakhstan concluded more than 30 agreements worth $17.2 billion. The deals cover critically important sectors from aviation to mining and from agriculture to digital technologies,” Mustafin says.

Among them are the agreement of the national carrier Air Astana to purchase 15 new Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft, a large John Deere project ($2.5 billion) to organize production of agricultural machinery in Kazakhstan, as well as a memorandum between the Samruk-Kazyna Fund and U.S. investors on the development of tungsten deposits ($1.1 billion). Particular attention was paid to high tech sectors. An agreement was signed between Freedom Holding Corp. and NVIDIA for $2 billion to develop artificial intelligence, agreements with SpaceX (Starlink) on the launch of satellite communications in Kazakhstan, and even a memorandum between the Ministry of Digital Development of Kazakhstan and OpenAI, Coursera and the University of Arizona to promote digital literacy and AI education.

According to the political scientist, these data indicate that Kazakhstan seeks to extract concrete benefit from its partnership with the U.S., that is, to attract investment, technology and education. In turn, the American side highly appreciated Kazakhstan’s role.

“Trump called Kazakhstan “a true partner in peace and prosperity” and noted Tokayev’s outstanding leadership, even hinting at the possibility of his visit to our country in the future. In addition, President Tokayev expressed support for the new American initiative called Route for International Peace and Prosperity. “Kazakhstan is ready to cooperate within the TRIPP initiative. This project will strengthen global connectivity and contribute to stability and prosperity in our region,” the President noted. Thus it was demonstrated that Kazakhstan intends to participate in major international infrastructure projects to strengthen its role as a transcontinental transit hub,” Mustafin believes.

Finally, complementing the diplomatic tour with visits to Beijing and Washington, D.C., Kassym-Jomart Tokayev less than a week later headed to Moscow. On November 11 to 12, 2025, his state visit to Russia took place, during which talks were held with President Putin. The trip to the northern neighbor became the culmination of efforts to maintain balance among the great powers. On the first day in the Kremlin, the leaders held an informal conversation lasting more than two and a half hours face to face. Then on November 12, at the official ceremony, a very important political agreement was signed, the Declaration on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Allied Relations between Kazakhstan and Russia. The document consists of 42 points and covers almost all areas of cooperation.

In addition, the sides agreed to develop a unified Eurasian transport and logistics system, linking the North South corridors with the Trans Caspian Middle Corridor China Europe. Thus Kazakhstan and Russia outlined joint development of new trade routes, particularly relevant amid sanctions driven restructuring of global logistics.

“Vladimir Putin himself emphasized that Russia and Kazakhstan remain closest allies and any arising issues are resolved naturally by the efforts of the heads of state and governments. He also especially noted the expansion of economic ties. According to Putin, Russia’s trade with Kazakhstan reached almost $30 billion in 2024 and continues to grow. Moreover, Russia’s total trade with all Central Asian countries exceeded $50 billion per year, but the Russian leader, with a hint of reproach, compared this figure with more than $50 billion dollars of Russia’s trade with Belarus alone, implying insufficient economic integration of the region with Russia. In response to these statements, President Tokayev demonstrated that he possesses facts no worse than his interlocutor. He clarified that according to Kazakhstan, Russia’s trade with Central Asia already exceeded $50 billion in 2024, of which Kazakhstan accounts for $28 billion. Tokayev assured Putin of readiness to further deepen economic partnership and integration,” Mustafin emphasizes.

In particular, as the expert notes, he agreed that the priority direction is the development of transport infrastructure, calling Russia “the key outlet of the countries of our region to global markets,” and pointing out that cooperation in logistics is an issue of heightened strategic importance. Kassym-Jomart Kemelyevich informed about Astana’s large-scale investment in the transport sector (more than $35 billion over 15 years) and noted that 11 international transport corridors pass through Kazakhstan, carrying about 85% of land cargo shipments between Asia and Europe.

Thanks to the modernization of routes, over the past three years transit of cargo from Russia through Kazakhstan to other Central Asian countries has grown by 26%, and in the opposite direction by almost 50%. Delivery of Russian cargo to China through Kazakhstan has tripled (to 5 million tons). For joint development of infrastructure, President Tokayev proposed that Moscow launch a special bilateral investment and logistics program along the eastern North South route and create a Council for the Development of the Eurasian Route at the level of heads of transport agencies to coordinate projects and eliminate bottlenecks. Such initiatives show that Kazakhstan is actively shaping the agenda in bilateral relations. Moreover, Vladimir Putin accepted the invitation to visit Kazakhstan in 2026, which indicates bilateral commitment to continue dialogue at the highest level.

“With all this, in my view, any analysis of Kazakhstan’s strategy should begin with the European Union. It is relations with Brussels that form the economic foundation that allows Astana to conduct pragmatic dialogue with other powers. The statistics for 2024 to 2025 are indisputable. In 2024, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the EU reached $48.8 billion. The most important detail of this figure is that $38.1 billion of it is Kazakh exports to Europe. A massive trade surplus is created, ensuring inflow of hard currency and stability of the economy. Moreover, the EU is investor number one. Since 2005, more than $200 billion have been invested in Kazakhstan’s economy. The country is implementing 89 projects with European partners worth $7.1 billion,” Mustafin believes.

Speaking about the formation of its own diplomatic school, the political scientist noted that it has traditionally been known for its ability to maneuver among great powers. Under President Tokayev, this strategy received new development.

“The Head of State himself is a professional diplomat and brought a more technocratic and independent style to Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. Experts note that under him Astana focuses on national sovereignty, economic pragmatism and diversified multilateral cooperation. This is evident both in his rhetoric and practical steps. Under President Tokayev, there is a shift toward pragmatic defense of concrete national interests. He significantly expanded contacts beyond traditional alliances with Russia and China, strengthening engagement with the West and Asia beyond the post-Soviet space. For example, in recent years Kazakhstan has intensified cooperation with the European Union, countries of the Middle East, South and East Asia. The President avoids overly ideological Eurasian rhetoric, preferring to speak about sovereignty, international law and mutual benefit. He positions Kazakhstan as a state pursuing “a functional multilateral approach”, that is, participating in integration organizations for practical returns but without compromising independence in decision making,” the political scientist believes.

Elements of a distinctly Kazakh view of global problems are increasingly evident in Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s speeches, Mustafin notes. Speaking at international forums, he emphasizes global challenges and the role of a middle power in addressing them. For example, at the Astana International Forum in 2023, the President noted the threats of fragmentation of the world system and called for revival of the culture of multilateralism based on mutual respect. At the same time, he refers to Kazakhstan’s unique experience as a country that voluntarily renounced its nuclear arsenal and promotes ideas of nuclear disarmament and dialogue of civilizations.

“One can say that a “Kazakh school” of foreign policy has taken shape, based on the following principles: strict observance of norms of international law (Kazakhstan consistently stands for the inviolability of borders), multi-vector policy and balance of interests, economic diplomacy (attracting investment, trade as the basis of relations), and mediation in conflict situations. The Head of State combines these principles,” the political scientist notes.

Geographic position and historical destiny have made Kazakhstan literally and figuratively a bridge between East and West. Today, according to Rustem Mustafin, this is one of the images that Astana uses to promote national interests. As the largest state of Central Asia, located at the junction of Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan seeks to convert its transit and geopolitical position into concrete economic dividends and political influence.

“President Tokayev directly calls Kazakhstan “a reliable bridge between East and West”, offering its territory and diplomatic services to connect the two worlds. First of all, “the bridge state” strategy manifests itself in large-scale projects for the development of transport corridors. After disruptions of supply chains caused by the pandemic and sanctions, Kazakhstan found itself at the center of attention as an alternative to traditional routes. The focus was placed on the development of the Trans Caspian International Transport Route, known as the Middle Corridor. In fact, Kazakhstan offers its geographical position as a service. The national interest is obvious. These are transit payments, infrastructure investment, job creation, and turning the country into an indispensable link in regional trade. Another facet of the bridge state should also be mentioned. Kazakhstan is a major producer of oil, gas and uranium. The main export of Kazakh oil goes to the West through the CPC pipeline to the Black Sea and then to Europe. But in recent years Kazakhstan has begun supplying oil to China through the Atyrau Xinjiang pipeline. The country is increasing gas exports to China while simultaneously discussing Russian gas reverse flow to supply its south,” the expert concluded.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Kazakhstan had risen to the level of the middle power in 30 decades.