IMF projects 3% growth in 2025 in updated outlook
Global economic activity is projected to moderate in the coming years, according to the latest World Economic Outlook update released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The analysis underscores varying regional paths and a decline in inflation rates, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.0% in 2025, rising slightly to 3.1% in 2026, a slight slowdown from 3.3% in 2024 and well under the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%. Despite this, growth remains above earlier projections, mainly due to improved financial conditions and lower-than-expected tariff levels.
Inflation is expected to remain above target in the United States, while in other major economies it is expected to ease further. The adjustment in effective tariff rates, which has declined from 24.4% to 17.3% in the United States and from 4.1% to 3.5% globally, also played a role in the improved inflation outlook.
Oil and natural gas prices have shown some stability, with the IMF noting that recent volatility due to geopolitical tensions has largely subsided. Forecasts point to a decline in energy prices of around 7% in 2025, below expectations. As a result, monetary policy is expected to vary across regions.
“Monetary policy rates in the United Kingdom and the United States are expected to decline in the second half of 2025, though at varying speeds, whereas the IMF staff expects the policy rate in the euro area to remain unchanged and that in Japan to rise gradually. Fiscal stimulus is anticipated in major economies in the near term, including China, Germany, and the United States. In the United States, the OBBBA is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by about 1.5 percentage points of GDP in 2026, with tariff revenues offsetting about half of this increase,” the IMF says.
The organization also forecasts GDP growth in the advanced economies to average between 1.5% and 2.1% in 2025, with a slight improvement in 2026. In the euro area, growth is forecast to reach 1.0% next year. In China, GDP is now forecast at 4.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous figure, while India is expected to maintain growth at 6.4% in both 2025 and 2026.
According to the report, Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Growth in East and Central Asia is forecast at 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively.
In terms of recommendations, the IMF emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and policy coordination.
“Ultimately, lifting medium-term growth prospects is the only sustainable way to ease macroeconomic trade-offs,” the report concludes. “Enduring structural reforms in areas such as labor markets, education, regulation, and competition can boost productivity, potential growth, and job creation.”
As previously reported by Kazinform, earlier IMF assessments pointed to key vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
