Global risks picture darkens as competition reshapes world outlook
The world is entering 2026 with a growing sense of unease, as geopolitical rivalry, economic pressures, and rapid technological change converge to create a more fragile international environment, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
Rather than pointing to a single looming catastrophe, the report paints a broader picture of a system under strain. Wars continue to rage in different regions, economic tools are increasingly used as instruments of power, and trust between states is eroding. Together, these trends are reshaping how global risks are perceived and prioritized.
Half of the more than 1,300 experts surveyed expect the next two years to be turbulent or stormy, while only a tiny fraction foresee a calm period ahead. Looking ten years out, pessimism deepens further, with a majority anticipating persistent instability.
At the center of short-term concerns is geoeconomic confrontation. Respondents point to the expanding use of sanctions, tariffs, export controls, and investment screening as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026. State-based armed conflict follows closely behind, reflecting fears that geopolitical tensions could escalate or spill across borders.
Economic anxieties are also resurfacing. After a period in which inflation and downturn risks eased somewhat in global rankings, they are climbing again. Experts cite mounting debt, fragile financial markets, and the possibility of asset bubbles as factors that could amplify economic shocks.
Technology, meanwhile, is seen as both an opportunity and a growing vulnerability. Misinformation and disinformation rank among the most pressing near-term threats, eroding public trust and complicating crisis response. Cyber insecurity is another major worry. Over the longer term, adverse outcomes linked to artificial intelligence move sharply higher in risk rankings, as respondents consider how AI could affect jobs, social stability, and security.
Social fractures run through many of these concerns. Inequality once again stands out as the most interconnected global risk, linked to economic downturns, polarization, and declining confidence in institutions. Rising societal polarization itself is viewed as a destabilizing force, especially as political, cultural, and identity-based divides deepen in many countries.
Environmental risks present a contrasting pattern. In the short term, they have slipped down the rankings as attention shifts toward geopolitical and economic shocks. Yet over a ten-year horizon, climate-related dangers dominate. Extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems are still regarded as the most severe long-term threats facing humanity.
The report also suggests that the global order is continuing to drift away from established multilateral frameworks. Most respondents expect a fragmented, multipolar system in which regional and great powers compete to shape rules and norms. Only a small share anticipates a revival of a U.S.-led, rules-based international order.
Overall, the findings portray a world where risks are becoming more interconnected and harder to manage in isolation. The survey does not predict specific outcomes, but it underscores how today’s choices on cooperation, governance, and technology will shape whether current strains evolve into deeper crises.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency published an article examining the global transition from a rule-based to a deal-based order, driven by weakening traditional alliances and increasingly fluid geopolitical boundaries.
