EBRD forecasts Kazakhstan GDP growth at 4.7% in 2026
Kazakhstan’s economic growth slowed to 4.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, mainly due to disruptions to oil exports and lower production, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Qazinform News Agency reports.
In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD said disruptions along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, along with incidents at the Tengiz oil field, contributed to a contraction in the country’s oil and gas output.
Despite the slowdown in the energy sector, Kazakhstan’s manufacturing industry continued to expand, supported by strong growth in machinery, food processing and chemicals. Construction also recorded growth, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects, according to the EBRD’s press service.
The bank forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 4.7% in 2026, before moderating to 4.5% in 2027.
The EBRD identified potential disruptions to oil export routes, weaker external demand and lower global commodity prices as key downside risks to Kazakhstan’s economic outlook.
Across Central Asia and Mongolia, economic growth reached 5.9% in the first half of 2026. The EBRD expects regional growth to remain strong at 5.8% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027.
Earlier, it was reported the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) was backing the expansion of Abris Distribution- Kazakhstan (Abris), a premier IT product and services distributor in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
