Astana–Yerevan: Kazakh wheat on the “Trump route”

From diplomacy to practical integration

Astana and Yerevan are moving to a level of strategic planning in which dialogue becomes the basis for shaping a new architecture of infrastructural interaction and economic cooperation.

Diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Armenia were established on August 27, 1992. Since then, the parties have signed around 40 documents, including the main Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (1999). Over three decades, the political dialogue has moved from symbolic exchanges of visits to a formed institutional system of cooperation. As experts note, until the last two years, contacts developed largely inertially and were mainly limited to participation in multilateral platforms — the CSTO, EAEU, and CIS.

A consistent series of visits in 2023–2025 has significantly revitalized the political dialogue: over two years the parties conducted more than ten mutual visits at the level of presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers, and parliamentary speakers.

In 2024, two important events took place: the official visit of President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Yerevan and the return visit of Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan to Astana. These contacts strengthened the political foundation of cooperation and marked a transition to forming economic and technological priorities in the bilateral agenda.

According to Almat Toekin, an expert at the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Astana will be a significant event. Against the backdrop of the peace agreement signed on August 8 in Washington between Armenia and Azerbaijan, new transport and economic opportunities are opening up that may give impetus to cooperation between Astana and Yerevan.

The result of the peace arrangements was the preparation for the implementation of the international project TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), also known as the modernized Zangezur Corridor. It is intended to provide direct communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, further with Türkiye, and also to form an alternative land route complementing the Middle Corridor.

President Tokayev was among the first to call the document a “historically important achievement.” Just two months after the agreements were concluded, an event occurred that had not happened in 30 years: Azerbaijan lifted transit restrictions for Armenia, and the first cargo transported through the new logistics scheme was Kazakh wheat. The first train carrying Kazakh wheat arrived in the Armenian town of Ayrum. The pilot batch of 15 wagons opened not only a new logistical direction but also marked the emergence in the South Caucasus of a transport corridor that takes into account the interests of all countries in the region, with Kazakhstan becoming one of its key participants.

“When the President of Azerbaijan visited Kazakhstan, it was in Astana that he announced his readiness to open transit corridors through Azerbaijan for Kazakh wheat supplies to Armenia. And just recently, this has already been implemented. This once again confirms that the peace agreement concluded in Washington is beginning to bring real practical results. Gradually, I hope, relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia will improve: borders will open, diplomatic relations will be established,” notes Almat Toekin.

From historical foundation to a strategic stage

Astana and Yerevan have moved from formal partnership to real interaction.

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the gross inflow of foreign direct investment from Armenia to Kazakhstan from 2005 to 2024 amounted to $20.6 million, while Kazakh investments in the Armenian economy reached $56.5 million. More than 400 joint enterprises are registered in Kazakhstan — mainly in trade, services and IT — and over 100 companies with Kazakh capital operate in Armenia.

In an interview with Kazakh media, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that “today our relations are acquiring a strategic nature… we are determined to develop them on the principles of equality, mutual support, and respect for sovereignty.”

Expert Almat Toekin notes that Armenia and Kazakhstan, acting independently of each other, are moving toward a common goal — expanding transport and economic autonomy without contradicting their obligations within the EAEU. According to him, both countries seek to diversify their economies and transit potential. Their positions are becoming increasingly aligned, forming the foundation for a new level of cooperation.

“Previously, the problem was that the trade turnover between our countries was extremely low — only $7–8 million dollars per year. Now trade volume has increased, and especially if a full unblocking occurs, I am confident that trade turnover will grow. Armenian goods will enter Kazakhstan, ours will go to Armenia. In addition, within the Eurasian Economic Union, cooperation and trade turnover will also develop,” the expert believes.

Economic potential is obvious, but the structure requires adjustment

Over the first eight months of 2024, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Armenia amounted to $57 million, while over the same period this year it slightly exceeded $35 million. Kazakhstan’s main exports to Armenia are tobacco products, hair care products, cotton, yogurt, kefir, batteries, and other goods.

In turn, Kazakhstan mainly imports jewelry, strong alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, foodstuffs, gas meters, as well as electricity from Armenia.

Political analyst Zamir Karazhanov believes that the decrease in trade turnover is objective rather than political.

“The growth of trade turnover remains unstable, and our task is to ensure its sustainability and irreversibility. There are serious grounds for this: Armenia’s economy exceeds $25 billion dollars, which is more than that of neighboring Kyrgyzstan, with which Kazakhstan’s trade turnover in 2024 amounted to $1.4 billion dollars. It is obvious that the current trade figures do not correspond to the economic potential of Kazakhstan and Armenia. Therefore, at the government level, both countries are considering opportunities to increase trade turnover,” he notes.

Expanding ties

In 2025, cooperation between Kazakhstan and Armenia intensified in the field of high technologies and artificial intelligence.

Kazakhstan and Armenia plan to create conditions for mutual participation in digital ecosystems and develop e-government platforms, building on the successful experience and national initiatives of both countries within the EAEU.

According to Johnny Melikyan, head of the Department for the Study of International Relations at the Center for Public Relations and Information under the Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia, the course toward building a digital state opens new opportunities for deepening cooperation with Kazakhstan, especially in artificial intelligence and smart city development.

Educational cooperation will become an important direction. By the end of 2025, 16 Kazakh universities had signed 19 agreements with 16 Armenian universities. For now, the main areas are business, law and medicine, but Kazakhstan is actively expanding the IT sphere, which may also become a basis for integrating the scientific and educational space of the two countries.

According to Zamir Karazhanov, today relations between Kazakhstan and Armenia are moving from a symbolic level to practical interaction — from exchanging visits to exchanging technologies and knowledge. The implementation of joint projects in logistics and digitalization will create a lasting effect for the entire region.

The upcoming visit of Nikol Pashinyan to Astana and the meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission are intended to give impetus to new agreements — from investment to humanitarian.

Cultural cooperation is developing based on the Programs of Cooperation in Culture and Sports for 2024–2026 signed in 2024. Since 2010, the Abai Center for Kazakh Language and History has been operating at Yerevan State University, and in 2023 the Days of Kazakh Theater and a concert by Dimash Qudaibergen took place, gathering thousands of spectators.

In addition, the Armenian diaspora of around 40,000 people, mostly in the Mangystau region, plays a notable role in strengthening cultural ties and mutual understanding between the peoples.

Recently, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law ratifying the agreement with Armenia on migration cooperation. The document allows citizens of both countries to travel to and stay in each other’s territories without a visa for up to 90 days, significantly expanding opportunities for travel, business, and cultural contacts.

According to experts, Nikol Pashinyan’s visit will contribute to deeper integration of the two states within the new architecture of Eurasian connectivity.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will pay an official visit to Astana on November 20–21 at the invitation of President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.