Who will lead the UN next and will it matter?

Analysts caution that expectations surrounding the next Secretary-General should remain realistic. According to international relations expert Tair Nigmanov, the UN’s challenges go far beyond the capabilities of any single leader.

“The organization is increasingly criticized for failing to resolve issues of war and peace. Conflicts are growing in number, international law is frequently violated, and in many cases, no one is held accountable,” he said.

Nigmanov argues that the root of the problem lies in the UN’s structure. Unlike a sovereign state, which can enforce laws through institutions stronger than individual citizens, the UN does not possess comparable authority over its member states.

“In a functioning state, if someone violates the law, the state has the power to punish them. But the UN is not stronger than the countries that make it up,” he added.

This imbalance is especially evident when dealing with major powers. Some states possess nuclear weapons, making coercive measures unrealistic, while the five permanent members of the Security Council retain veto power over key decisions.

“This creates a chicken-and-egg dilemma. Are these countries powerful because they have veto power, or do they have veto power because they are powerful?” Nigmanov noted.

Even if institutional reforms were proposed, he explained, they would likely face resistance from those same states, which could ultimately ignore or bypass UN decisions altogether.

Amirlan Nurgazin, a research fellow at the Maqsut Narikbayev Institute for Network and Development (MIND), agrees that structural constraints will remain decisive, but emphasizes the importance of leadership in preserving the UN’s role.

“The issue should not be framed as a transformation of the UN’s role,” he said. “Rather, it is about whether the new Secretary-General can preserve space for diplomatic maneuver.”

In a context where trust between major powers is declining, the Secretary-General’s ability to act as a mediator becomes critical. A candidate with strong multilateral experience, Nurgazin added, may not resolve underlying conflicts but can help ease tensions and maintain dialogue on specific issues.

The process of selecting the next Secretary-General reflects these same geopolitical realities. Formally appointed by the General Assembly, the candidate must first be recommended by the Security Council, where any of the five permanent members can veto the nomination.

“In conditions of heightened geopolitical tension, consensus becomes more difficult to achieve,” Nurgazin said.

Among the candidates currently discussed, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is widely seen as a leading contender. His role at the agency, which oversees nuclear safety and monitors aspects of nuclear weapons programs, has elevated his international profile.

Grossi has been involved in major diplomatic efforts, including monitoring nuclear developments in Iran and responding to risks around nuclear facilities in conflict zones such as Ukraine, Nigmanov noted.

Nurgazin added that Grossi’s reputation as a negotiator capable of balancing competing interests gives him an edge. However, Nurgazin stressed that it is too early to identify a definitive favorite. The current field also includes Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, and Macky Sall of Senegal.

“Historically, final candidates often emerge late in the process. It is entirely possible that a compromise figure acceptable to all major powers will appear at a later stage,” Nurgazin noted.

Regional balance and representation

Regional considerations are also shaping the race. While there is no formal rotation system, such patterns have influenced past selections.

With the current Secretary-General António Guterres coming from Europe, attention has turned to other regions, particularly Latin America, which has never held the position.

International relations expert Nigmanov noted that there is also growing attention to gender representation, as the UN has never had a female Secretary-General. This gives additional visibility to candidates such as Bachelet, who represents both Latin America and the potential first female UN Secretary-General.

Nurgazin noted that in the current geopolitical climate, these factors may carry less weight than before.

“In previous cycles, regional balance often served as an initial filter. Now, permanent members are more likely to first assess political acceptability before considering regional representation,” he explained.

Institutional challenges

Whoever takes office will face immediate pressure to advance reforms. Calls to improve the UN’s effectiveness have intensified amid criticism of its response to global crises.

International relations expert Tair Nigmanov points to internal inefficiencies as a major concern.

“The UN is an extremely bureaucratic and slow-moving organization. Coordinating nearly 200 countries inevitably creates delays,” he said.

At the same time, he stressed that the Secretary-General can play a meaningful role in strengthening the UN’s humanitarian work. Agencies such as the World Health Organization and UN Women remain central to promoting healthcare access, education and human rights, particularly in regions where national systems are weak.

“The Secretary-General can influence which areas are prioritized and how quickly these issues are addressed,” he said.

Nurgazin highlights additional pressures, including financial constraints and declining trust in the organization. Reduced contributions from major donors, particularly the United States, are forcing difficult decisions about resource allocation.

“The new Secretary-General will have to simultaneously secure funding and demonstrate that resources are being used effectively,” he added.

Reforming the selection system

Experts differ on whether the method of selecting the Secretary-General itself requires reform.

Nigmanov argues that changing the process would have limited impact if the office’s authority remains constrained.

“There is little point in improving the selection system if the person elected cannot fully exercise their powers,” he said.

Nurgazin, however, believes reform is necessary. He points to proposals such as introducing a single non-renewable term, increasing the role of the General Assembly, and requiring the Security Council to recommend multiple candidates instead of one.

“I largely share President Tokayev’s position on the need to rethink the role and structure of the United Nations. The current system for electing the Secretary-General was formed in a fundamentally different international configuration and is now increasingly out of step with the expectations of the majority of member states,” said a research fellow at MIND.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev highlighted the need to increase UN’s effectiveness and authority.