UN Tourism downgrades 2026 tourism forecast to 1-2%
Around 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June 2026, just 3 million more than during the same period last year, UN Tourism said, Qazinform News Agency reports.
According to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism, global arrivals grew 2% in the first quarter, but fell 1% in the second quarter. In June , arrivals declined by 3% year-on-year. The slowdown was linked largely to the conflict in the Middle East, higher travel costs and disruptions to air travel.
Africa recorded 4% growth in the first half of the year, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%. Asia and the Pacific grew 1%, but remained 11% below 2019 levels. Within the region, North-East Asia rose 3%, while South Asia fell 5% and South-East Asia declined 1%.
The Middle East recorded the steepest drop, with arrivals down 22% as the conflict directly affected tourism. In June, arrivals also fell 6% in Western Europe, 5% in South-East Asia and 6% in parts of Oceania, where Typhoon Sinlaku contributed to disruptions.
The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile. The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself and serves as a clear reminder that, in such a connected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere and not just when a crisis begins, said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.
UN Tourism has now revised its 2026 global tourism growth forecast to 1%-2%, down from its January forecast of 3%-4%. The outlook will depend heavily on the duration of the conflict, oil prices and inflation. Travelers are also expected to increasingly seek value for money and shorter-distance or domestic trips as costs remain elevated.
Earlier, Qazinform reported Azerbaijan Airlines, part of AZCON Holding, had launched its first flight to Aktobe, Kazakhstan, bringing the number of cities it serves in the country to six.