UAE break with OPEC: What does it mean for Kazakhstan?

Lazic noted that the UAE and Saudi Arabia had long been among the key pillars of OPEC, although their roles were different.

“The Emirates and Saudi Arabia were the two main pillars of OPEC,” she said, adding that Saudi Arabia “has always been and will probably remain the largest oil producer.”

At the same time, she stressed that the UAE has gradually moved away from dependence on oil revenues. According to Lazic, Abu Dhabi began investing in low-carbon technologies, logistics, trade, finance, tourism, manufacturing, and nuclear energy years ago.

“The Emirates have already reached the point where they are not economically dependent on oil revenues,” Lazic said.

This gives the UAE a major advantage over other OPEC members. The country can withstand much lower oil prices because its estimated breakeven price is around $40 per barrel.

“Forty dollars per barrel and below is not critical for the Emirates,” she said. “They can continue their national economic model even at such prices.”

By contrast, Saudi Arabia needs much higher prices to sustain its budget. Lazic estimated Riyadh’s breakeven price at around $90 per barrel. Kazakhstan, she said, is also in a more vulnerable position than the UAE.

“In Kazakhstan, the breakeven price seems to be around $60 or $70 per barrel, if we look at the state budget. Kazakhstan’s budget and economy are tied to oil prices,” Lazic noted.

This is where the UAE’s move becomes important for Astana. If Abu Dhabi increases production outside OPEC limits, global supply could rise and prices could come under pressure. In that situation, Kazakhstan would need to prepare for a lower-price environment.

Lazic said Kazakhstan should act quickly to use its current oil potential more effectively.

“I have said more than once, and I always say, that Kazakhstan urgently needs to confirm reserves and bring production capacities at its oil fields online,” she said. “This money, this revenue, must be used to lift and diversify the country’s economy and develop production.”

She added that export infrastructure, pipelines, logistics, roads and transport routes should also be developed now, because they can later serve other sectors of the economy.

According to Lazic, the UAE’s decision was also influenced by its readiness to raise output to around 5 million barrels per day, its financial arrangements with the United States, and its desire to strengthen its own role in the Gulf region. She said Abu Dhabi has become more self-sufficient and is now able to pursue a more independent energy and geopolitical strategy.

The expert does not believe OPEC will collapse after the UAE’s exit. However, the organization will have to evolve.

“We are no longer talking about a cartel and discipline as it existed before,” Lazic said. “OPEC will evolve.”

She added that Saudi Arabia will remain a major force, but it may become harder for the group to enforce production quotas, especially among countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.

“Kazakhstan and Iraq are two major violators of OPEC agreements,” she said. “Why do Iraq and Kazakhstan violate them? Because there is production, there is export capacity, and the countries export. They think in terms of their own economies.”

For Kazakhstan, the main lesson is clear. Lazic believes the country must reduce its dependence on high oil prices and improve the profitability of its oil sector.

“Kazakhstan needs to move toward making oil more profitable, so that in a low-price environment the country can exist without a national crisis,” she concluded.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that the United Arab Emirates had announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ format, marking one of the most significant developments in the global energy market in recent years.