Summit in Dushanbe may set a new vector of cooperation between Central Asia and Russia — experts

The scientific director of the Russian Institute of Regional Problems, Dmitry Zhuravlev, noted that the main attention at the upcoming meeting would be paid to issues of the economy and energy, as well as to the regulation of migration processes.

“For Kazakhstan, the migration issue is not so relevant, but the range of questions in the field of economic cooperation remains broad, considering that the economies of Russia and the Central Asian countries were part of a single economic complex until recently. Security issues will also be touched upon, but they will not be key — there are other platforms for that, such as the SCO,” the expert said.

From a practical point of view, he believes, the focus may be on the development of transport infrastructure.

“The creation of a stable ‘Europe–China’ transport corridor remains a pressing task, in which not only Russia and the countries of the region are interested, but also China and the European Union,” Zhuravlev stated.

He also added that in the bilateral format, special attention would likely be paid to labor migration, which is of key importance for some Central Asian states.

“In general, the interest of participants is directed toward deepening economic integration: some need investment, others need markets, and others need technology. For states with limited resources and sovereignty, equal partnership becomes a tool to solve accumulated problems,” he emphasized.

According to Dmitry Zhuravlev, the “Central Asia–Russia” format may eventually transform into a permanent mechanism, potentially replacing the CIS, whose effectiveness is often questioned. An alternative scenario could be integrating this format into the CIS structure as a more effective platform.

The director of the Russian Institute for Energy and Finance, Marsel Salikhov, believes that Russia’s economic cooperation with Central Asian countries has a rational basis, primarily in the energy sector.

“Supplies to European markets are currently difficult or economically unprofitable, and Moscow is forced to look for alternative directions. The Central Asian market looks promising in this sense, as the region is experiencing economic growth and population increase, and its geographical proximity makes it more convenient than more distant markets, such as India,” the expert said.

However, in his view, there are certain limitations.

“The level of consumption and GDP per capita in Central Asian countries remains below European indicators. Another factor is the system of energy subsidies in the region, which leads to artificially low domestic prices and reduces trade attractiveness. The situation is gradually changing: in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, domestic energy prices are rising, which reduces subsidies and makes the market more transparent and appealing. Against this background, Russia’s role as a gas supplier in the region is strengthening,” Salikhov noted.

The expert also emphasized that, in real economic terms, the key players in the region remain China and Russia.

“Beijing has significant financial resources and a powerful economy and is actively expanding its presence in the region. Russia has an advantage in energy supplies, as Central Asia as a whole remains energy-deficient. In the long term, Moscow is interested in expanding exports of oil-refined products,” the expert said.

Overall, he noted that economic partnership between Russia and Central Asia has long-term potential, primarily in the energy sector. Despite constraints related to low purchasing power and energy subsidies, gradual market liberalization makes the region increasingly attractive.

Russian expert on Central Asia Darya Rekeda believes that regular meetings between Russia and Central Asian countries, including the upcoming summit in Dushanbe, confirm the stability of the dialogue format.

“Such contacts allow participants to ‘synchronize their watches’ and build cooperation in real time,” she said.

In her opinion, the region is gradually redefining itself as a unified space, where there is not yet a formal integration union, but consultative meetings of leaders have become an important tool for strengthening regional coordination.

The expert noted that the key topics for discussion include the development of transit potential, food security, and the expanding domestic market amid active demographic growth in the region.

“Russia is focusing on investments in the secondary and tertiary production sectors, where the markets of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stand out in particular. The economic component remains the core of both bilateral and multilateral negotiations,” Rekeda said.

According to her, given the changing situation in Syria and Afghanistan, coordination on security issues will also be on the agenda.

“Humanitarian cooperation has always played a significant role, especially labor migration, which is particularly important for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan amid adjustments to Russian legislation. Education is becoming a priority — it concerns quotas, academic mobility, and the development of Russian university branches in Central Asia,” the expert noted.

A separate set of issues will concern energy, including nuclear energy and the supply of energy resources. The transport and logistics agenda, particularly the development of the Middle Corridor, which has recently attracted growing interest, is also of great importance, Rekeda added.

In general, the agenda of relations between Central Asian countries and Russia remains rich and multifaceted. The growing number of joint ventures and projects confirms the interest of Russian companies in the region’s markets.

Summarizing expert opinions, it can be said that the main focus of the summit will be on the economy — from investment in production to the development of transport routes and energy cooperation. Migration, education, and security issues will also take an important place, especially in the context of the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Thus, the upcoming summit is viewed as a step toward forming a sustainable mechanism of dialogue between Central Asia and Russia.

Earlier, it was reported that, at the invitation of the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will visit Dushanbe on October 9–10 to take part in the “Central Asia–Russia” Summit and the CIS Heads of State Council meeting, according to the Akorda press service.