Scientists consider measures to avert asteroid 2024 YR4 collision with the Moon

The report, titled “Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4,” outlines potential missions ranging from reconnaissance to disruption. A lunar impact, scientists note, could eject over 100 million kilograms of debris, threatening satellites and space infrastructure for years. “Such an event could trigger cascading collisions similar to the feared Kessler syndrome,” the study states.

To prevent this, researchers — including teams at NASA — are exploring a “kinetic disruption mission” aimed at fragmenting the asteroid before it reaches the Moon. The proposal draws on lessons from NASA’s 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of asteroid Dimorphos.

However, specialists emphasize that 2024 YR4 is larger and farther away, requiring more drastic measures. Among the proposed options is deploying two 100-kiloton nuclear devices, each up to eight times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One would attempt to shatter or deflect the asteroid, while the other would serve as a backup.

Though the probability of impact remains low, astronomers stress that preparation is crucial. As the study concludes, planetary defense is no longer solely about “saving lives on Earth but also protecting humanity’s growing space infrastructure.”

Earlier reports noted that scientists caution against the risks of asteroid-deflection missions, emphasizing that they must be carried out with extreme precision. A poorly targeted strike could push the object through a so-called “gravitational keyhole,” creating the possibility of a future collision with Earth.