Repealing Jackson-Vanik Amendment signals stability, opens doors for deeper Kazakh-U.S. investment and business ties

Historical context

The Jackson–Vanik Amendment was adopted by the U.S. Congress in 1974 as part of the Trade Act of 1974, during the height of the Cold War. Its purpose was to link trade benefits, specifically most-favored-nation (MFN) status, to the freedom of emigration in non-market economies, primarily targeting the Soviet Union and other socialist states that restricted citizens’ right to leave the country.

After the collapse of the USSR, the amendment continued to formally apply to several newly independent states, including Kazakhstan, although its provisions had long lost practical relevance. Over time, U.S. administrations used various mechanisms to grant normal trade relations to these countries despite the amendment’s existence.

The Jackson–Vanik restrictions were permanently lifted for several post-Soviet nations, including Russia and Moldova in 2012 through legislation paired with the Magnitsky Act, and for Ukraine and Georgia earlier. Kazakhstan was not included in those specific repeals, which means the amendment technically remains in force in U.S. law with respect to Kazakhstan, although it has not been actively applied for many years and is widely viewed as an outdated relic of the Cold War era.

Political and economic implications

Timur Kogabayev, Teaching Professor at the Maqsut Narikbayev University’s International School of Economics, noted that “the formal repeal of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment with respect to Kazakhstan, if it happens, would be a political and symbolic step rather than an economically transformative one. Kazakhstan already enjoys most-favored-nation status as a WTO member, and the amendment has long been de facto inapplicable.”

He added that keeping it in legal force remains “an anachronism that potentially hampers the deepening of trade and investment cooperation.”

According to the expert, renewed attention to the issue may have been prompted by a wave of bilateral agreements signed during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s recent visit to the United States.

“We are talking about deals worth around $17 billion — covering the supply of Boeing aircraft, Wabtec locomotives, John Deere agricultural equipment, AI projects, as well as new U.S. investments in tungsten mining totaling over $1 billion.”

He stressed that this represents “the largest wave of economic agreements between the two countries since the 1990s, when Chevron and ExxonMobil entered Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector, followed by Philip Morris in tobacco production.”

Investment signal

Trade and investment analyst and author of the Tradereport.kz , Yernar Serik, believes the repeal would be “an important signal for investors and businesses.” He said the decision would “reduce political uncertainty, eliminate the need for annual exemptions by the U.S. administration, and make trade policy more predictable for businesses.”

“For Kazakhstan, this means an improved investment climate, stronger confidence from American companies and financial institutions, and easier access to joint business projects and technologies,” Yernar Serik emphasized.

He added that the repeal would also remove a number of legal and reputational barriers for American companies, simplifying decisions to cooperate in sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, mining, and high-tech production.

“In general, repealing the amendment is not an immediate economic gain but a strategic signal that the U.S. is ready to treat Kazakhstan as a reliable partner with predictable rules of engagement,” the economist noted. “This increases Kazakhstan’s attractiveness as a platform for long-term investment and for diversifying foreign economic relations.”

Timur Kogabayev added that the step could also be viewed as a political gesture “in response to the U.S.’s growing interest in strengthening its economic presence in Central Asia.” However, he cautioned that “systematic growth in trade and investment between the two countries will still require additional efforts — primarily institutional, technical, and infrastructural.”

Earlier, during his visit to Washington, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with the founders of Kazakh IT startups entering international markets. He was presented with projects including Higgsfield AI, Deep Infra, Valinor, and ARC Drones, among others, with a combined valuation of $1.4 billion.