Red lines crossed: Iran signals retaliation options following U.S. strikes

Speaking in Istanbul on Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the Islamic Republic has “a variety of options” in responding to what it considers a direct violation of international norms.

Observers warn that Iran may target American military infrastructure across the region. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the United States maintains a presence at 19 sites in the Middle East, including eight considered permanent. Some 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed across the region, with 2,500 located in Iraq as of late 2024.

Political and foreign policy reporter Barak Ravid noted that Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that if the U.S. joins a war and strikes nuclear facilities, they “will retaliate against U.S. forces in the region, against U.S. interests, and there are a lot of those.”

There are already signs that Iran-backed groups are mobilizing. A senior Houthi official from Yemen stated on social media that “Trump must bear the consequences” of the strikes. The current state of a U.S.-Houthi ceasefire remains uncertain.

Given its limited capacity for direct confrontation, Tehran may instead opt for a war of attrition strategy. Analysts suggest that Iran may attempt to exhaust U.S. and Israeli forces through sustained, lower-intensity conflict rather than full-scale warfare.

Iran could also exert pressure by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy supplies. “They can influence the entire commercial shipping in the Gulf,” said Barak Ravid.

Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A prominent adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader has already advocated for missile strikes and closure of the Strait. “Following America’s attack on the Fordow nuclear installation, it is now our turn,” said Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the conservative Kayhan newspaper.

“Iran has the capacity to cause a shock in oil markets, drive up oil prices, drive inflation, collapse Trump’s economic agenda,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj Media.

Nuclear acceleration feared

There is growing concern among analysts that Tehran may now accelerate efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon. “Trump just guaranteed that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next 5 to 10 years,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC.

Parsi warned that even if the current regime were replaced, a more hawkish leadership might pursue nuclear armament as the only viable deterrent. Reports suggest that Iran had already moved enriched uranium from vulnerable sites amid increasing Israeli pressure.

Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is also under discussion. “Iran’s response is likely not just limited to military retaliation. NPT withdrawal is quite likely,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

In immediate retaliation, Iran struck Israeli territory. According to Israel’s Ministry of Health, 86 individuals were hospitalized following a missile strike on Tel Aviv.

Experts believe Iran may limit its response to targeting Israel while avoiding deeper confrontation with the United States. “Trump at the time wanted to ‘send a big message, get the headlines, show U.S. resolve, but then avoid a wider war,’” said Shabani, referring to the 2020 killing of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

Some speculate that Iran’s military response could mirror the 2020 retaliation, when a missile barrage injured over 100 U.S. personnel but caused no fatalities.

With its conventional capabilities diminished by Israeli strikes, Iran may resort to asymmetric tactics, including cyberattacks and terrorism. “I think the IRGC is probably trying to figure out what capabilities it has left,” said CNN national security analyst David Sanger.

Sanger suggested that cyberattacks are a likely option: “They’re probably going to be looking for things where the U.S. cannot just put up the traditional defenses.”

Retired Major General James “Spider” Marks echoed the sentiment: “Albeit wounded,” he said, “the IRGC still has tremendous capacity,” capable of operating both within and beyond the region.

Diplomatic path narrowing

Tehran’s prospects for returning to nuclear negotiations appear increasingly slim. “They crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities. … We have to respond based on our legitimate right for self-defense,” Araghchi said.

Parsi noted that Iran’s strategy may be to pressure Trump into reigning in Israel. “Their aim is to force Trump to stop Netanyahu’s war,” he wrote. “But the flip side is that Tehran has given Israel a veto on U.S.-Iran diplomacy.”

Last week, Iranian and European officials met in Geneva. According to Araghchi, “Last week, we were in negotiations with the U.S. when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy. This week, we held talks with the E3/EU when the U.S. decided to blow up that diplomacy.”

Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group Ali Vaez commented that Tehran was already reluctant to negotiate “with a gun to their head.” Now, he said, “The more likely situation is that the talks are over for now.”

Earlier, it was reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to hold a series of talks in Moscow, including a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to TASS.