President Tokayev’s Berlin agenda: How Astana is building a strategic partnership with Germany

New momentum in Kazakhstan-Germany relations

Relations between Kazakhstan and Germany now span more than 30 years. Yerbulat Seilekhanov, chief research fellow at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan, said Germany holds a special place among Kazakhstan’s European partners.

“Germany is Kazakhstan’s key strategic partner in Europe. Relations between our two countries have developed steadily. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Germany in 2019, 2020 and 2023. The current visit will be his fourth,” the expert said.

According to him, exchanges of delegations have increased noticeably in recent years. He cited German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s visit to Kazakhstan in 2023 and Bundesrat President Anke Rehlinger’s visit to Astana in 2025.

“What I consider particularly important and noticeable is that our relations have become institutionalized in recent years. These include the Central Asia-Germany and European Union-Central Asia formats. The first European Union-Central Asia summit took place in November last year. I believe this institutionalization shows that relations between Kazakhstan, Germany and Central Asia are reaching a new level,” Seilekhanov said.

Billions in investment

Economic ties remain one of the foundations of bilateral cooperation. Since 2005, German direct investment in Kazakhstan has exceeded $8 billion, with a substantial share directed toward the non-resource sector. More than 1,000 companies with German capital operate in the country, including CLAAS and Horsch in agricultural machinery, Siemens and Siemens Energy in technology and energy, BASF and Linde in chemicals and gases, and Knauf and Heidelberg Materials in building materials.

The presence of major German companies in Kazakhstan creates opportunities for technology transfer, highly skilled jobs and the introduction of modern management standards.

Kazakhstan seeks not only to increase trade volumes but also to change the structure of trade. This means moving beyond straightforward trade toward deeper industrial cooperation through local production, technology transfer and the training of skilled workers.

This form of cooperation also appeals to German businesses because it combines access to Kazakhstan’s raw materials with the opportunity to establish parts of their production and technology chains in the country.

Against this backdrop, new markets, sources of raw materials and transport routes are becoming increasingly important to German businesses. Kazakhstan may be of interest to Germany in several areas, from supplies of energy and critical raw materials to industrial cooperation, investment, logistics and technology projects.

According to Seilekhanov, Germany’s current interest in Kazakhstan is closely linked to changes in Europe’s geopolitical and economic situation.

“This also affects the nature of economic relations between Kazakhstan and Germany. Amid the changes taking place, Germany’s interest is linked to its desire for access to Kazakhstan’s natural resources,” the expert said.

He identified several areas of particular importance: the extraction and processing of rare earth metals and other critical materials, transport and logistics, and Kazakhstan’s transit potential in the context of trade between China and the European Union.

“China is a leading trading partner of the European Union and Germany in particular. Kazakhstan’s transit potential and the development of the Middle Corridor are therefore becoming especially important,” Seilekhanov emphasized.

Nikolas Butylin, a columnist for the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung, also pointed to the complementary nature of the two economies.

“Kazakhstan is one of Central Asia’s most dynamic markets, and for Germany it has long been more than simply a supplier of raw materials. The country is a major partner in critical raw materials, renewable energy and green hydrogen, and it plays a decisive role in developing the Middle Corridor between Europe and Asia. Germany, in turn, can help modernize and diversify Kazakhstan’s economy through its technology, investment and expertise,” the columnist said.

In his view, it is now important to turn cooperation between the two countries into specific projects, from industry and logistics to education and science.

“In a period of geopolitical instability, reliable partnerships and a positive agenda based on mutual benefit are needed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit could send an important signal and take cooperation to a new level,” Butylin said.

How fully the potential of this partnership is realized in practice will, however, depend largely on the structure of bilateral trade.

The structure of trade is changing

Trade and economic relations between Kazakhstan and Germany continue to show positive momentum, although bilateral trade remains uneven. From January to July 2026, trade between the two countries totaled $2.57 billion, up 4.4% from the same period in 2025. Kazakh exports accounted for most of the growth, while imports from Germany were virtually unchanged.

According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, exports to Germany rose 15.3% over the first seven months of 2026, from $728.9 million to $840.1 million. Imports remained close to last year’s level at $1.73 billion, declining by just 0.13%.

As a result, the trade imbalance narrowed slightly. The deficit fell from about $1.01 billion in January-July 2025 to $890 million in the same period of 2026.

The main feature of export growth is its heavy dependence on one commodity. Crude oil accounted for virtually all the increase in Kazakh exports to Germany. Its export value rose 26.2% to $719.3 million, while the volume supplied grew more moderately, by 3.1% to 1.12 million tons. The value of oil exports therefore rose faster than the physical volume.

Oil’s share of Kazakhstan’s exports to Germany increased from 78.2% to 85.6% over the year. Ferroalloys accounted for another 4.9%, while hydrogen, inert gases and other nonmetals made up 3.4%. These three categories therefore represented almost 94% of total exports.

New products are also appearing in the export mix. Kazakhstan has begun supplying Germany with hard coal, propylene polymers, soybeans and rare earth metal compounds. Exports of cable products, precious metal waste and scrap, and specialized equipment are increasing.

For now, however, their scale is not comparable with oil exports. Moreover, growth in new product categories has been accompanied by declines in several traditional exports, including flaxseed, copper master alloys, aluminium and wooden products. It is therefore too early to speak of substantial diversification of Kazakhstan’s exports to Germany.

Imports from Germany present a very different picture. Their total value has barely changed, but the mix of goods has shifted noticeably. Lower purchases of pharmaceutical products and some industrial equipment were offset by sharp increases in imports of electric generating sets, cars, packaging equipment, lifting machinery and earth-moving equipment.

The most notable change concerns electric generating sets. Imports quadrupled from $37.3 million to $150.1 million. Passenger car imports doubled to $100.4 million. Imports of equipment for filling, sealing and packaging products rose to $84.1 million, while lifting and handling machinery imports reached almost $41.9 million.

At the same time, imports of medicines fell sharply, from $260.6 million to $175.6 million. Supplies of steam boilers, metalworking machinery and road equipment also declined.

The stable overall value of imports thus conceals substantial changes in their composition. Kazakhstan is buying more German equipment needed for energy, industry, processing, logistics and agriculture, as well as medical and pharmaceutical products.

The January-July 2026 data also show that German supplies are more diversified than Kazakhstan’s exports. The five largest import categories account for about one-third of all imports from Germany. The contrast is clear: a single commodity, crude oil, makes up more than 85% of Kazakhstan’s exports to Germany, while imports from Germany are spread across a much wider range of goods.

The structure of trade also points to the main opportunity for developing relations further. Growth in cable products, chemical materials, rare metal compounds and specialized equipment indicates that new areas are emerging.

For Kazakhstan, the central question is therefore less about increasing total trade than about changing its composition by expanding exports of more highly processed products.

Talks in Munich could help identify new approaches. The first meeting of the Kazakhstan-Bavaria Working Group took place there on September 18. It focused on investment opportunities in Kazakhstan’s transport sector, development of the Middle Corridor as a strategic route between Asia and Europe, and potential projects in rail, port and airport infrastructure. Kazakhstan expressed its readiness to involve Bavarian companies in joint projects and exchanges of experience in innovative technologies.

Kazakhstan’s main challenge, however, is to change the structure of trade rather than simply increase its volume. The country aims to export more highly processed products, which would strengthen its position in the European market, increase the value added to its exports and create new jobs at home. In this context, cooperation with Bavaria could play a key role: German companies have experience in technology, innovation and industrial modernization that could accelerate Kazakhstan’s transition from a raw-materials model to the production of competitive goods.

The Middle Corridor: an artery of bilateral trade

Expanding economic ties requires reliable and competitive transport and logistics routes. For Kazakhstan and Germany, one of the key routes is the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor.

It gives Kazakhstan additional opportunities to reach European markets and provides Germany with an alternative route for trade with Central Asia and China. Further development of the route, increased capacity and shorter delivery times could therefore be important to expanding trade and industrial cooperation.

According to Seilekhanov, German business participation in developing the Middle Corridor could be one of the important topics in the current talks.

“I think that, in addition to rare earth metals, they will certainly discuss the participation of German companies in the Middle Corridor. This includes creating logistics centers and improving transport across the Caspian Sea,” the expert said.

German company Rhenus Logistics, which is active along the route, says the Trans-Caspian corridor is gaining importance as the architecture of global trade changes. Kazakhstan occupies a key position because of its geography and developing logistics infrastructure.

According to Tobias Bartz, CEO and chairman of the management board of international transport and logistics group Rhenus Group, further development of the route requires bringing separate infrastructure projects together into a single system.

“The main task now is to connect individual infrastructure projects step by step into a resilient network in which capacity, operational services and strong partnerships along the entire route function as one. Kazakhstan plays a key role here, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian region and Europe. The Kazakh President’s visit to Berlin and the joint steps that follow with our partners are therefore important elements of long-term development for us and a continuation of our many years of presence in the region,” he emphasized.

Development of the Trans-Caspian route strengthens Kazakhstan’s role as a transit country and creates further opportunities for its integration into European logistics chains. The participation of international companies also makes it possible to combine the country’s infrastructure capacity with international expertise and global logistics networks.

Energy and the green transition

Energy has a distinct place on the bilateral agenda. Alongside traditional oil supplies, Kazakhstan and Germany are developing cooperation in renewable energy and green hydrogen.

A green hydrogen production project is being implemented in Kazakhstan’s Mangystau region with Germany’s Svevind Energy Group. According to Seilekhanov, green energy remains a promising area of cooperation.

“I think green energy will be discussed. Alongside green hydrogen production, this could include further construction of wind farms and the use of solar power. Kazakhstan is very interested in these areas and has considerable potential. I therefore think German partners will be offered opportunities to participate in creating such facilities,” the expert said.

He also addressed the diversification of routes for Kazakh oil supplies to Germany.

“One of the major projects between Kazakhstan and Germany involves supplying Kazakh oil to the refinery in Schwedt. The possibility of using other routes to deliver oil to Germany will undoubtedly be raised as well, since Germany is very interested in this,” Seilekhanov said.

Agriculture and critical materials

Agriculture is another area in which cooperation could expand. Kazakhstan is interested in increasing agricultural exports to German and European markets.

Seilekhanov noted that Kazakh products must first meet European requirements.

“Kazakhstan is offering to supply agricultural products to the German market. Kazakhstan produces environmentally friendly products that are now in demand around the world and in Europe. The main obstacle is creating a seamless environment without barriers. European standards are considerably stricter than those in Kazakhstan. Bringing our standards into line with European ones will help our environmentally friendly products reach the markets of Germany and the European Union as a whole,” the expert said.

In his view, agriculture could again become a focus of the talks.

“I think the discussions will primarily concern the implementation of agricultural projects,” Seilekhanov said.

Cooperation on critical materials remains another potential area. According to the expert, this could involve not only extraction but also the creation of a complete production cycle.

“At the European Union-Central Asia summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was interested in establishing a complete production cycle across the entire value chain, from extraction to finished products. This entails creating enterprises that will work in these areas,” he said.

People as a bridge of friendship

Closer economic ties are complemented by enduring people-to-people connections.

Almaty is home to a Goethe-Institut office, a DAAD office, the Kazakh-German University and schools in the PASCH network, which brings together educational institutions where German is taught internationally.

During Olaf Scholz’s visit to Astana in September 2024, a memorandum was signed to establish a Kazakh-German school in the capital. The school is expected to teach to German standards, offer German from the first grade and issue a school-leaving certificate recognized in both countries.

According to Seilekhanov, educational cooperation is especially important for developing human capital.

“Cooperation in education is undoubtedly important, above all for developing human capital. New educational institutions have opened in Kazakhstan, including the Kazakh-German Institute of Science and Technology at East Kazakhstan Technical University,” the expert said.

People-to-people ties are also supported by travel between the two countries. Kazakhstanis go to Germany to study and work, while German citizens visit Kazakhstan through educational, cultural and business programs.

Another issue that remains relevant, in his view, is the easing of visa requirements between Kazakhstan and the European Union.

Relations between Kazakhstan and Germany are thus gradually moving beyond the traditional “resources in exchange for technology” model. Industrial cooperation, investment, logistics, critical raw materials, education and workforce training are at the center of the new agenda.

At the same time, the structure of trade shows that the partnership’s potential is far from exhausted. Kazakhstan’s main task remains expanding exports of higher-value products and developing joint production.

These areas could gain new momentum following President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s official visit to Germany.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Berlin hosted the 17th meeting of the Kazakhstan-German Business Council for Strategic Cooperation on August 27. The council is a key platform for dialogue between the two countries’ business communities and for promoting joint investment and industrial projects.