Mediterranean faces 100% chance of 1m-plus tsunami, UNESCO warns

The assessment does not mean that a tsunami is imminent or that every Mediterranean coastline will experience a wave of the same size. Rather, it reflects the long-term probability of a tsunami of at least one meter occurring somewhere in the basin.

UNESCO notes that densely populated coastal areas of the north-eastern Atlantic and its connected seas, including the Mediterranean, North, Baltic and Black seas, are exposed to both small and destructive tsunamis due to seismic and volcanic activity.

In June 2026, the Nice Côte d'Azur Metropolitan Area received Tsunami Ready recognition from UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), marking a step forward in coastal preparedness in the Mediterranean region.

The UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme promotes measures including tsunami risk assessment, public education, evacuation planning and reliable warning systems.

Tsunamis do not always appear as towering walls of water. They can cause a rapid rise or retreat of the sea, followed by powerful currents and repeated surges. The first wave may not be the largest, and dangerous conditions can continue for hours.

For Mediterranean coastal communities, the message is clear: knowing the risks and having an evacuation plan in place before an emergency can save valuable time when a tsunami strikes.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that El Niño was expected to continue strengthening and might develop into a very strong event in the coming months.