Five global risks of Artificial General Intelligence

While the primary focus of the study is on U.S. national security, the challenges discussed are relevant to the entire world, as the development of AGI could impact global strategic stability.

Next-generation weaponry

The report's authors draw parallels between the capabilities of AGI and the nuclear breakthrough of 1938. AGI could become a "wonder weapon," providing its possessor with a decisive military advantage. Potential threats include the creation of advanced cyberattacks, autonomous weapon systems, and algorithms capable of manipulating information on a global scale.

Shifting global power dynamics

The second risk factor is the systemic shift in the global power structure. The authors argue that history shows technological revolutions rarely lead to immediate military dominance. However, AGI could significantly accelerate military and economic imbalances, redistributing power among nations.

Danger of non-specialists developing weapons of mass destruction

The development of AGI could make it easier to access technologies for creating biological, chemical, and cyber weapons. The authors of the report warn that AGI could teach users how to develop dangerous systems, lowering the entry threshold for potential terrorists or hostile nations.

Modern AI models already demonstrate the ability to analyze complex technological data, which could lead to a situation where even individuals without specialized knowledge could replicate dangerous technologies.

Artificial entities with independent agency

Another threat is the potential emergence of autonomous AI systems capable of making decisions without human intervention. The difficulty in predicting AGI behavior adds additional risks. Such systems could affect critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and military control, creating the risk of losing control over them.

Destabilization during the transition period

The final challenge relates to the uncertainty surrounding the path to AGI. In the race for AI supremacy, countries might adopt strategies similar to 20th-century nuclear standoffs, leading to instability and confrontation on the international stage.

Experts emphasize that current strategies aimed at technological superiority need to be adapted to address new threats. Governments are advised to develop contingency plans for technological breakthroughs, establish regulatory frameworks for AGI, and invest in AI security research.

The future of AGI remains uncertain, but strategic planning and international cooperation could help minimize risks and guide the development of these technologies in a safe direction. The question is whether the global community will be able to prepare for this revolution before it arrives.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported on main challenges of AI in 2024.