El Niño set to bring extreme weather into 2027
El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and may develop into a very strong event in the coming months. The climate phenomenon could significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, increasing the risks of droughts, floods and extreme heat, Qazinform News Agency reports.
According to forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Producing Centres, there is a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. The organization stressed that this is the first time its experts have expressed such a high degree of confidence in an El Niño forecast.
El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of 2026, although its impact on the climate may continue to be felt throughout the following year.
One of the main signs of the strengthening El Niño is the exceptional warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. From May to July, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were, on average, 1.5°C above normal, with the anomaly reaching 2°C in July. By mid-August, weekly values had risen to between approximately 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average.
Even higher temperatures have been recorded below the ocean surface. In some areas, subsurface waters were more than 8°C warmer than average.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the climate phenomenon was reaching unprecedented proportions.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” he said.
The WMO, together with national meteorological and hydrological services, is strengthening preparedness and early warning efforts. At the same time, experts stress that a very strong El Niño does not necessarily mean equally severe consequences for every country.
According to the WMO forecast for September to November 2026, temperatures are likely to be above normal across almost all land areas. Significant changes in rainfall patterns are also expected in many regions.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that strong El Niño events have occurred more frequently over the past century than during the previous millennium. A new study found that temperature fluctuations in the eastern Pacific between 1990 and 2010 were 36.5% greater than during the 1,000 years preceding 1850.