El Niño is stronger than ever in 1,000 years, study finds
A powerful El Niño event developing in the Pacific is part of a longer-term trend of increasingly frequent strong events linked to human-caused climate change, according to a new study, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
Researchers reconstructed sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific over the 1,000 years before the Industrial Revolution by analyzing coral skeletons from the Galapagos Islands. Their findings, published in Science, show that strong El Niño events have occurred more frequently over the past century than during the previous millennium.
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It can temporarily raise global average temperatures and affect weather patterns around the world, with consequences for ecosystems and economies.
The researchers found that the strength of the temperature swings in the eastern Pacific between 1990 and 2010 was 36.5% higher than during the 1,000 years before 1850. Compared with the 1851-1982 period, the increase was 16%.
The researchers said the increase was driven by more frequent strong El Niño events.
The latest El Niño emerged in the Pacific in June, with forecasts suggesting it could become a record-breaking event by a wide margin. It would also be the third strong El Niño in just 11 years, something that has never been observed before.
Scientists have long debated whether climate change is making El Niño events stronger and more frequent. The new findings add to evidence from observations and climate models that human-caused warming is influencing the natural cycle.
However, researchers caution that the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that drive El Niño are complex, making it difficult to predict how the cycle will change in the future.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Super El Niño could transform US winter weather.
