Cocoa prices climb for sixth straight month amid El Niño concerns

The increase came amid broader gains across agricultural commodities, driven by geopolitical risks and climate-related disruptions.

Wheat prices climbed 21% per bushel as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine threatened grain shipments through the Black Sea, where hostilities and port closures brought grain loading operations close to a halt.

Corn rose 16% amid declining production in Brazil and a smaller US harvest, while soybeans gained 8.5% on strong Chinese demand and lower production in South America. Rice prices increased 9.2% due to adverse weather and below-average monsoon rains in major Asian producing countries, particularly India.

Sugar surged 21.5% as higher oil prices boosted demand for sugarcane as a raw material for ethanol, while cotton gained 13.9% amid hot weather and drought in US-producing regions. Coffee, meanwhile, fell 1% on forecasts of increased rainfall in Brazil.

Cocoa prices have staged a sharp recovery this year after plunging 48.1% in 2025, their steepest annual decline, as drought concerns in West Africa eased and harvests increased.

After falling sharply in January and February 2026, cocoa prices rose 14.3% in March, 8.2% in April, 9.9% in May, 29.4% in June, 6.3% in July and 25.5% in August.

Daniela Corsini, senior economist at Italian banking group Intesa Sanpaolo, told Anadolu that the war in the Middle East had pushed up energy costs, while record temperatures and climate-related problems amid El Niño had affected harvests and driven cocoa prices higher.

She warned that supply disruptions in West Africa could worsen in the coming months, with El Niño intensifying the annual Harmattan winds that affect the region and threaten cocoa trees.

“Thus, several analysts have trimmed their forecasts for a global surplus in 2026-27 and some have also warned about the risk of a global market flipping again into deficit due to strengthening demand, especially in Asia,” Corsini said.

Oran van Dort, a commodities analyst at Rabobank, said the 2026/27 harvest had contributed to the cocoa rally that began earlier this year. He pointed to the risk of El Niño, as well as slow crop development and flowering in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, as key factors behind the price increase.

At the same time, van Dort cautioned that media coverage of a worst-case El Niño scenario and concerns over a poor mid-crop could be fueling speculative buying.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Brazilian coffee prices mostly increased in early August as a slow harvest, recovering international quotations and concerns over a possible El Niño event supported the domestic market.