Central Asian economies show diverging growth trends in 2025, international forecasts show
Central Asia is set for robust economic growth in 2025, but the pace and drivers differ significantly across countries, Trend reports.
Data obtained and analyzed by agency from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicates differences in projected growth across the region, with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan showing higher projected rates, Uzbekistan exhibiting moderately strong growth, and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan forecasted to expand at a more moderate pace.
Kyrgyzstan stands out as the fastest-growing economy, with forecasts dancing between 8.0 percent (IMF) and 11.7 percent (ADB), landing on a sweet spot average of 9.57 percent. Strong domestic demand, public investment in infrastructure, and rising remittances underpin this expansion. However, the wide spread in forecasts signals sensitivity to potential fluctuations in remittance inflows and the sustainability of investment-driven growth.
Tajikistan maintains solid momentum, supported by diversified sectors including agriculture, trade, and industry. Forecasts for 2025 cluster more closely (7.5-8.1 percent, average 7.7 percent), suggesting a relatively stable growth outlook. Analysts highlight that continued inflows from remittances and infrastructure investment are key enablers, but relying on outside funds and the ebb and flow of commodity prices might put the brakes on growth.
Uzbekistan’s growth is on the upswing, with an average forecast of 6.9 percent, fueled by a robust appetite for domestic consumption, a healthy dose of investment, and a solid export performance that’s hitting the ground running. Compared to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the spread in forecasts is narrower, indicating more consensus among institutions and less vulnerability to short-term shocks.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are looking to keep their heads above water with moderate growth expectations. Kazakhstan’s average forecast of 5.9 percent reflects solid performance in oil production and infrastructure. Turkmenistan shows a similar pattern (average forecast 5.0 percent), with growth underpinned by public investment and services, yet a wide forecast spread points to uncertainty in underlying economic assumptions.
As written before, the international conference highlighted regional security priorities in Central Asia.