A unique position in Beijing-Moscow-Washington triangle - political scientist on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy

In November, the Head of State made two significant visits — to the United States and Russia. According to Abishev, this dynamic shows that Kazakhstan is managing to build a stable balance in its relations with Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.

“It must be acknowledged that Kazakhstan is now a unique country whose leader has equally good relations in the Beijing-Moscow-Washington triangle,” the expert notes. “And I think these countries do not threaten Kazakhstan but, on the contrary, guarantee its security, which means that they not only refrain from attacking themselves but also help Kazakhstan defend itself from all sorts of threats. This is good.”

Kazakhstan already has strong and close relations with China, especially at a time when Beijing’s weight and influence on the global stage are increasing.

“It all comes down to China’s economic policy and the fact that Kazakhstan has special relations. The way the Chinese leader speaks about Kazakhstan and the fact that China guarantees Kazakhstan’s security and independence means a lot,” he said.

At the same time, the recent state visit of Kassym Jomart Tokayev to Moscow and the elaborate reception by Vladimir Putin highlighted decades of stable bilateral ties:

“The traditional relations between Russia and Kazakhstan and between presidents Tokayev and Putin testify to the authority of our country. Some commentators discuss with sarcasm President Tokayev’s words that Vladimir Putin retains authority in many countries around the world. But the fact remains: Putin is globally known. And how he is regarded in Western Europe or the United States is one thing, while his perception in China, the Middle East, or developing countries is another matter.”

Another global player whose interaction with Kazakhstan has strategic significance is the United States. Despite the fact that there is no centuries long history of coexistence across a shared border, cooperation is gradually strengthening.

Abishev believes that the fact President Tokayev took part in the summit as part of the Central Asian leaders’ delegation and essentially acted as one of its key representatives is also telling. This indicates that Kazakhstan is well known to Washington and is of interest to American pragmatic foreign policy.

“We need to understand that we have average relations with Russia and China, greater than those with the United States of America. No one, of course, denies this. But the larger the gravitational force, the more influence it exerts even from afar,” the political scientist says about Kazakhstan’s relations with the United States.

At the same time, he notes that the United States remains the global leader in science and the economy and effectively controls the global financial system. Therefore, cooperation with this power holds special significance for Kazakhstan.

Today Washington views Kazakhstan as a serious regional player. The country serves as a kind of bridge between East and West, between North and South, and it is precisely Central Asia that becomes the arena where a major geopolitical game may unfold, the expert believes.

“Not all countries in the world have good relations with the United States of America. We have a firm pragmatism in our relations with them. We clearly know what we want from them, they clearly know what they want from us; in this sense, we have mutual understanding,” the speaker summarizes. The main driver of processes in Central Asia is the will of the region’s peoples, not external forces.

In the expert’s view, discussing Kazakhstan’s relations with the three major powers cannot ignore the issue of investment. China has been investing in Kazakhstan’s industries for many years and ten years ago announced its intention to localize about 50 enterprises.

“China invests in our industries, Russia creates thousands of joint ventures and helps open enterprises based on its own interests, of course, but this is a mutually beneficial interest. And from the United States of America we acquire high technologies, and within the new stage of relations the main thing that interests the Americans is raw materials, and the task of the Kazakh Government is to bargain for a transfer of technologies as well. I hope we will move in this direction,” Abishev notes.

According to him, this kind of attention is usually given to leaders of middle powers that actively conduct foreign policy and are perceived as full fledged players.

“Among our peers we can note, for example, the president of Finland, Stubb; we can note Hungary and several other countries whose leaders are equally noticeable at a high level, which speaks to our agency, independence, and Kazakhstan’s ability to act as an active player in foreign policy,” the political scientist points out.

Answering a question about how long Kazakhstan will be able to maintain balance within the political triangle, the expert says this cannot be calculated, but there is no alternative to such an approach.

“It is mistaken to assume that Moscow, Beijing, or Washington is behind certain developments in Central Asia. The main driver of all processes inside and around Central Asia is the will of the peoples of this region, and above all the will of the Kazakh people to build a sovereign, independent, and unified state that must survive in the historical process. This is the main task of the people, the state, and the political elites. Kazakhstani politicians are guided by this, and considering this and understanding that multivector and balanced foreign policy is the only path to the most effective development, I think our country will pursue it as long as possible, particularly since there are international examples, and so everything will be fine in this regard,” he said.

In the context of geopolitical turbulence, the expert notes that Kazakhstan gives “very restrained, targeted, and balanced” assessments of what is happening in the world.

“This is correct, because the more active and rational a player we remain, the more friends and partners we have who perceive us as an integral part of international politics, the better for our historical destiny,” the political scientist concluded.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that on November 11 and 12, President Kassym Jomart Tokayev made a state visit to the Russian Federation. Following the negotiations, presidents Kassym Jomart Tokayev and Vladimir Putin signed a Declaration on elevating interstate relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance.