Who produces Kazakhstan’s oil and where does it go: Market overview
Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector remains one of the key sources of government revenue, while oil production and exports are concentrated around several major projects and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). This is according to data presented by Energy Analytics during an industry briefing, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
According to analysts, the 50 largest taxpayers in Kazakhstan paid a combined 11.3 trillion tenge in taxes in 2025. The energy sector accounted for 7.523 trillion tenge, or 66.5% of the total.
The mining industry contributed another 2.117 trillion tenge, or 18.7%. The consumer and financial sectors each accounted for 5.8%, contributing 659 billion and 657 billion tenge, respectively. Other industries accounted for 352 billion tenge, or 3.1%.
Oil and gas companies pay trillions of tenge in taxes
Among oil and gas companies, Tengizchevroil was the largest taxpayer in 2025, contributing around 3.6 trillion tenge. Karachaganak Petroleum Operating ranked second with 1.3 trillion tenge.
Tax payments from NCOC amounted to 527 billion tenge, while Mangistaumunaigaz contributed 290 billion tenge. Embamunaigas and Karazhanbasmunai paid approximately 124 billion tenge each. Other oil and gas companies contributed another 934 billion tenge.
Long-term trends also point to growing budget revenues. According to the data presented, combined revenues to the national and local budgets, together with taxes paid by TCO, rose from 5.4 trillion tenge in 2014 to 21.6 trillion tenge in 2024.
Kazakhstan nears 100 million tons of oil per year
Three major projects form the backbone of Kazakhstan’s oil production: Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak.
According to Energy Analytics, Kazakhstan produced approximately 99 million tons of oil in 2025, up from 88 million tons a year earlier. The increase was driven primarily by Tengiz, where production rose from around 28 million to 39 million tons.
Kashagan produced about 18 million tons and Karachaganak around 12 million tons, while other fields accounted for approximately 30 million tons.
For comparison, Kazakhstan produced around 80 million tons of oil in 2011. Tengiz accounted for 26 million tons and Karachaganak for 12 million tons at the time, while Kashagan had yet to reach its current production levels.
Where could additional volumes come from after 2030?
The recent increase in Kazakhstan’s oil production has largely been driven by the expansion of Tengiz. The Future Growth Project added around 12 million tons of annual production capacity, but achieving a similar increase through Karachaganak or further expansion at Tengiz may prove difficult in the future.
Energy industry analyst Abzal Narymbetov estimates that Kazakhstan’s annual oil production could range between 90 million and 96 million tons after 2030. He sees further development of Kashagan as the main opportunity to push production beyond those levels.
“Karachaganak has been at its ceiling of 11–12 million tons for the past 15 years, but that cannot last forever either. So I do not think we should expect an increase from Karachaganak. The FGP was the last project that brought production to its ceiling. The only project that can significantly increase production is the Kashagan project, but there is currently a dispute there,” Narymbetov said.
Development plans for Kashagan envisage increasing production to 710,000 barrels per day by 2031, equivalent to around 89,500 tons of oil and condensate per day. The expansion is expected to involve bringing new areas of the field into production, developing additional infrastructure and increasing the volumes of raw gas available for further processing or supply.
More than 80% of oil is exported
Kazakhstan’s oil market remains predominantly export-oriented. In 1990, around 23% of the country’s oil production was exported. By 2000, the share had reached 78% and subsequently exceeded 80%.
In 2025, approximately 81% of Kazakhstan’s oil was shipped to foreign markets, while around 19% was consumed domestically.
Meanwhile, production has increased from less than 0.6 million barrels per day to approximately 2 million barrels per day over the past three and a half decades.
CPC remains the main export route
The role of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Kazakhstan’s oil exports has increased significantly over the past decade. In 2013, around 40% of the country’s oil exports passed through the CPC system. By 2025, its share had reached approximately 82%, according to Energy Analytics.
The physical volume of shipments along the route increased from 29 million tons to approximately 65 million tons per year over the same period. Other export routes accounted for around 14 million tons in 2025.
In addition to the CPC, Kazakhstan transports oil via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, eastward to China through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, and through Aktau across the Caspian Sea. The data presented for 2025 indicate, in particular, around 10 million tons transported via the Atyrau-Samara route and approximately 10 million tons via Atasu-Alashankou.
Kazakhstan promotes its own KEBCO crude grade
Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil, or KEBCO, occupies a distinct place in the country’s export policy.
The brand was introduced in 2022 for Kazakhstan-origin oil exported through Russian ports. Its introduction helped distinguish Kazakh crude from Russia’s Urals grade and reduce sanctions-related risks for exporters.
For comparison, Brent is a light, sweet crude oil and one of the world’s key pricing benchmarks. Its sulfur content is around 0.37%. Russia’s Urals has a sulfur content of approximately 1.8% and generally trades at a discount to Brent.
Who controls Kazakhstan’s largest oil projects?
A significant share of Kazakhstan’s oil production comes from projects involving international energy companies.
In Tengizchevroil, Chevron holds a 50% stake, ExxonMobil 25%, KazMunayGas 20% and LUKOIL 5%. The project’s stabilized contract runs through 2033.
At Kashagan, Shell, Eni, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil each hold 16.81%, while KazMunayGas holds 16.88%, CNPC 8.33% and Inpex 7.56%. The project’s production sharing agreement runs through 2041.
At Karachaganak, Shell and Eni each hold 29.25%, Chevron 18%, LUKOIL 13.5% and KazMunayGas 10%. The Final Production Sharing Agreement runs through 2037.
Another project, Dunga, operates under a production sharing agreement extended through 2039. Stakes in the project are held by Dunga Operating, Oman Oil Company and PTTEP.
PSA LLP serves as the authorized body for Kashagan, Karachaganak and Dunga, while the Ministry of Energy oversees production sharing and concession agreements.
How the state earns revenue from oil projects
Kazakhstan uses different models for subsoil development in its oil industry, including concession agreements and production sharing agreements (PSAs).
Under a standard concession model, a company receives the right to develop a field and assumes the risks associated with exploration and production, while the state receives taxes and other mandatory payments.
Under a PSA, part of the oil produced is allocated to recover the investor’s eligible costs. The remaining profit oil is then divided between the state and the company according to the terms of the agreement. The state also receives taxes and other payments stipulated by the contract.
PSAs became widely used in the global oil industry in the second half of the 20th century, allowing countries to attract foreign capital and technology to develop large and technically complex fields while retaining a share of the revenues generated by production.
Overall, Kazakhstan’s oil sector remains highly concentrated, with several major projects accounting for most production. More than 80% of the country’s oil is exported, with the CPC remaining its main export route. At the same time, the industry continues to play a key role in Kazakhstan’s tax revenues.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that oil prices surged to multi-month highs, with Brent reaching $108.75 per barrel and WTI $105.83.
