The world can triple renewables — if governments don’t slow it down
The world is on track to add renewable energy capacity at record pace again in 2025, bringing the goal of tripling global renewables by 2030 closer than ever. According to a new report by the independent energy think tank Ember, total renewable additions are projected to reach 793 gigawatts (GW) this year (an 11% increase from 2024) largely driven by solar power and China’s outsized role in global deployment, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports, citing Ember.
Ember’s analysis of solar and wind installations through September shows another year of historic growth. Solar capacity is set to rise by 9%, wind by 21%, continuing a streak of rapid expansion since 2022. China alone is expected to account for two-thirds of all new global solar and wind capacity.
The pace of growth is remarkable: annual solar additions in 2025 are projected to be four times higher than in 2021, while wind installations have increased by half over the same period. Much of the surge in China this year was driven by developers racing to complete projects before new compensation rules took effect in mid-2025.
The tripling target
At the 2023 UN Climate Conference (COP28), more than 130 governments pledged to triple global renewable capacity to at least 11 terawatts by 2030, a cornerstone goal for limiting warming to 1.5°C. Since then, global additions have exceeded expectations, averaging 29% annual growth between 2023 and 2025, well above the 21% per year initially required to stay on track.
As a result, annual additions now only need to rise by 12% a year from 2026 to 2030 to meet the tripling target. Yet the report cautions that sustaining current levels is not assured. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 forecast suggests that installations could slow in the coming years due to policy shifts in key markets like the United States and China. In the IEA’s main case, total capacity reaches 9,530 GW by 2030, around 15% short of the goal.
The shortfall is even larger in terms of power generation (around 28%) because most of the gap lies in wind and hydropower, which produce more electricity per unit of capacity than solar.
Despite the boom on the ground, government targets are failing to keep pace. Ember finds that national renewable capacity goals for 2030 have risen only 8% since COP28, collectively amounting to 7,793 GW, barely enough for a doubling, not a tripling, of 2022 levels.
China’s newly updated national targets, based on its 2025 climate submission, provided most of that increase, adding roughly 779 GW. But this gain was offset by a sharp decline in assumed U.S. ambitions after political changes and the rollback of major clean-energy incentives. Ember now uses the IEA’s more conservative 741 GW forecast as a proxy for the United States’ implicit 2030 goal.
Solar and wind targets both fall short of what is needed. The world’s combined national solar goals total just 3,110 GW by 2030, roughly half the level required for a tripling scenario. In contrast, wind targets and forecasts align more closely but still leave a gap of over 500 GW.
Ember concludes that the path to tripling renewables by 2030 is still “within reach,” but only if governments act decisively. National targets must be updated to match the pace of market growth, and stronger policy frameworks are needed to sustain investment in grids, storage, and system flexibility.
Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that Australian households would be able to access at least three hours of free solar electricity per day from 2026 under a government initiative.
