Scientists warn of severe warming and extreme rainfall in Black Sea basin
A new study projects that the Black Sea basin could warm by up to 4°C by 2070, dramatically increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, Qazinform News Agency cites Anadolu.
It reveals that average seasonal temperatures could increase by 2–4°C, with mountainous Eastern Anatolia seeing spikes of up to 7°C in March.
Currently lasting fewer than 10 days annually, heatwaves may extend to 50–55 days per year, occurring across multiple seasons.
Extreme hot days could account for 18–28% of the year, depending on elevation.
It claims spring snow cover may drop by 20%, with maximum depths shrinking from 125 cm to 80 cm.
Summer precipitation in Marmara and western Black Sea regions may fall by 50%, while winter rainfall could rise by 20%, creating dual risks of drought and flooding.
Daily maximum rainfall could nearly double, from 210 mm to 437 mm in Istanbul.
According to the study, the semi-enclosed Black Sea is warming faster than many other seas, with 0.5–1°C per decade increases.
Summer sea surface temperatures have already risen to 29–30°C, boosting evaporation and atmospheric moisture, which can intensify rainfall by 30–40% with a 2°C rise.
Identified hotspots include eastern Black Sea coast, Georgia, Romania, and Istanbul.
Researchers stress that climate impacts will intensify after 2040, requiring urgent adaptation in infrastructure, agriculture, water management, and urban planning.
As one expert noted: “The atmosphere has no borders. It is not enough for a single country to act alone, but there is much we can do locally. Adaptation policies can no longer be postponed.”
As written before, scientists revised the way El Niño and La Niña events are identified, saying rapid global warming has made the traditional system less reliable.
