Powerful El Niño could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths

Researchers forecast that global land temperatures will average about 1.2°C above normal during the period, resulting in a 44% increase in the number of extremely hot days. Between September 2026 and February 2027 alone, the study projects approximately 239,000 excess deaths linked to extreme heat.

The most severe impacts are expected across developing regions. In the Sahel, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, an estimated 66,800 additional deaths could occur over the next six months. Nigeria is projected to account for roughly 31,400 of those deaths, while Indonesia could see a further 19,300 heat-related fatalities.

Across Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are expected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths as temperatures rise.

Scientists described the extreme heat associated with this year’s El Niño as a glimpse into future climate conditions, warning that such temperature levels could become increasingly common within the next two decades as global warming intensifies.

The report emphasizes that targeted emergency responses in the most vulnerable regions could save tens of thousands of lives. Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the projections are intended to help governments identify where rapid intervention could have the greatest impact in reducing heat-related mortality.

As written before, Super El Niño deepens South Sudan hunger crisis.