Nominal GDP to rise to 230trn tenge in 2028, Economy Ministry says

“According to the baseline scenario, real GDP growth in 2026 will make 5.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% over three years. Nominal GDP is projected to increase from 183.8 trillion tenge in 2026 to 229.8 trillion tenge in 2028,” he said.

The main drivers of growth will be the real sector and the services industry. In processing sector, growth rates are projected to increase from 6.2% in 2026 to 6.6% in 2028, driven by the implementation of investment projects.

The average growth over three years is expected at:

· Mining industry - 2.8%

· Agriculture - 3.9%

· Construction - 11%

· Transport - 10.1%

· Trade - 6.7%

Exports are forecast at $77.1 billion in 2026, with a growth projected to reach $83.7 billion in 2028, while imports will increase from $67.7 billion to $75.2 billion.

Inflation is forecast at 9-11% for 2026, 6% for 2027, and 6% for 2028. Based on these macroeconomic indicators, the projected parameters for the budget and the National Fund have been developed for the years 2026–2028.

As Serik Zhumangarin noted, fiscal policy is aimed at ensuring the sustainability and balance of public finances, reducing the budget deficit, and replacing National Fund resources with domestic funding.

Republican budget revenues in 2026 are projected to reach 19.2 trillion tenge (10.5% of GDP), which is 4.7 trillion tenge higher than the estimate for the current year. By 2028, revenues are expected to grow to 23.2 trillion tenge, marking a 20.8% increase.

The share of the budget covered by internal revenues is expected to increase from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028. The guaranteed transfer from the National Fund will remain at 2,770 billion tenge annually.

Meanwhile, republican budget expenditures in 2026 will make 27.7 trillion tenge (15.1% against GDP), 28.8 trillion tenge in 2027, and 29.8 trillion tenge in 2028 (13% against GDP).