Kazakhstan’s economy accelerates while inflation remains a challenge – EDB analysis
According to the EDB report, Kazakhstan’s economy continues to demonstrate steady growth despite persistent inflationary risks, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
The March 2025 macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank reports that the country's GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, with growth accelerating to 5.4% in January–February 2025. The key drivers behind this expansion include the development of the services sector, industrial production, and increased investment.
GDP growth and key sectors
The acceleration in economic growth has been largely driven by the expansion of the non-resource sector. Industrial output rose by 2.8% in 2024, while the manufacturing sector recorded an 8.9% increase in the first months of 2025. The mining industry, meanwhile, showed moderate growth of 4.1%, but conditions are expected to improve in the second half of the year with the launch of new production capacities at the Tengiz oil field.
Inflation and monetary policy
Despite positive economic momentum, inflation remains a key challenge for Kazakhstan. In February 2025, consumer prices rose by 9.4% year-on-year, up from 8.9% in January. The primary driver of this inflationary trend was the increase in utility tariffs as part of the “Tariff in Exchange for Investment” program.
Foreign trade and fiscal policy
Exports increased by 3.1%, driven by higher shipments of metals and chemical products. At the same time, imports declined by 1%, primarily due to the completion of the investment cycle at major oil fields.
The fiscal situation is also improving. While the state budget deficit amounted to 3.6 trillion tenge in 2024, the country achieved a budget surplus of 329.5 billion tenge in early 2025. The primary driver of revenue growth was tax collection, which surged by 34.4% year-on-year.
Outlook for 2025
EDB analysts forecast that Kazakhstan's GDP growth will accelerate to 5.5% in 2025. Key factors supporting this expansion throughout the forecast period include expansionary fiscal policy, lower interest rates, increased oil production, and government programs focused on regional development and infrastructure construction.
Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported on Kazakhstan Monthly Update of from World Bank.
