Kazakh Government presents 2026-2028 economic growth forecast

GDP growth and key macroeconomic indicators

The Deputy Prime Minister said, according to the baseline scenario, real GDP growth in 2026 will be 5.4%, with an average annual growth of 5.3% over three years. Nominal GDP is projected to increase from 183.8 trillion tenge in 2026 to 229.8 trillion tenge in 2028. Economic growth will be driven by expansion in the real sector and services. Growth in manufacturing is expected to rise from 6.2% in 2026 to 6.6% in 2028 thanks to investment projects. Average growth in mining will be 2.8%, in agriculture 3.9%, in construction 11.0%, in transport services 10.1%, and in trade 7.0%.

He noted that exports are projected to grow from USD 77.1 billion in 2026 to USD 83.7 billion in 2028, while imports will rise from USD 67.7 billion to USD 75.2 billion. Inflation is predicted at the level of 9.0–11.0% in 2026, and an average of 6.0% in 2027–2028. Based on these macroeconomic forecasts, budget and National Fund parameters for 2026–2028 have been formed.

Fiscal policy

Serik Zhumangarin said, the country’s fiscal policy is aimed at ensuring the sustainability and balance of public finances, reducing the budget deficit, and replacing National Fund transfers with domestic revenues. Budget forecasting was based on the principles of fiscal policy and the targets of the Public Finance Management Concept until 2030. Revenues in 2026 are projected at 19.2 trillion tenge, or 10.5% of GDP. Compared to the current year’s estimate, that is 4.7 trillion tenge more, and by 2028 revenues will reach 23.2 trillion tenge, up 20.8%. Overall, the share of the republican budget covered by domestic revenues will rise from 63.7% in 2025 to 83.5% in 2028.

According to the Minister, the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund is estimated at 2.77 trillion tenge, within the limit calculated based on the cut-off oil price. Expenditure growth rates in 2026–2028 are stabilized at 108.7–109.3%.

Budget expenditures within the established limits will amount to 27.7 trillion tenge (15.1% of GDP) in 2026, 28.8 trillion tenge (14.0% of GDP) in 2027, and 29.8 trillion tenge (13.0% of GDP) in 2028.

Overall, the socio-economic development forecast, along with budget and National Fund parameters, is aimed at ensuring quality and dynamic growth of the national economy and the sustainability of public finances, the Deputy Prime Minister stated.

As stated previously, IMF commends Kazakhstan’s economic reforms as GDP growth hits 6.4%.