Global сhallenges of our time – experts’ vision at Connnected 2024
At “Connected” conference panel session titled “An informed view of the future: a worldview approach”, prominent speakers gathered to discuss the humanity’s path to harmony amid global challenges, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
The Power of AI
Gerd Leonhard, Futurist, Humanist, Author of "Technology vs. Humanity", CEO of The Futures Agency (Switzerland) spoke on the nature of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential role in shaping the future.
The speaker begins by clarifying the term "artificial intelligence," noting that AI should be understood as "machine intelligence" rather than human intelligence. Machine intelligence, he explains, operates as a "probability engine," finding patterns and making decisions based on logic, while human intelligence is far more complex, encompassing social, cultural, and kinesthetic aspects.
“We have different kinds of intelligence. A machine has only one type of intelligence, and while it may be more powerful than ours, it's limited. We’re likely to see machines with an IQ equivalent to Einstein’s 152, and eventually 5,000, 50,000, or 5,000,000. But human intelligence is more complex than just computing. Humans think not just with the brain, but with the body as well. Artificial intelligence doesn’t fully understand reality because it doesn’t experience it. When we ask AI questions about real life, it fails. Could that change in the future? I think it could. When we put more power behind it, we may eventually reach the singularity. But going back to the core question: What should we build for a good future? To achieve it, we need better tools—not machines with consciousness, but machines that are competent. That, I believe, is the priority,” says Leonhard.
The speaker also discusses the immense potential of AI and technological advancements, including the singularity - the merging of humans and machines. Today, with innovations like quantum computing, nuclear fusion, synthetic biology, and AI, humanity can achieve things once thought impossible, such as uploading our brains to the internet or building human-like machines. However, the speaker emphasizes that the critical question is not about what we can do with technology, but what we should do.
Challenges of AI
Kay Firth-Butterfield, CEO of Good Tech Advisory, TIME Impact Honouree 2024, Former Head of Al and Member of the Executive Committee at World Economic Forum (USA) challenges the optimistic narrative around AI that it will "save the planet."
She emphasizes the importance of deploying AI responsibly and thinking ahead about the future we want, rather than reacting after it’s too late. She also points out several key concerns about AI.
First, while advancements in AI have been impressive, such as the improvement from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4, the actual performance gains are beginning to plateau. For example, in office jobs, humans still outperform AI significantly, with AI performing at only 1.9% efficiency compared to 93.7% for humans.
The speaker also highlights the intersection of AI and climate change, noting that while AI is often touted as a solution to climate issues, it is contributing significantly to the problem. Every query made to a large language model like GPT consumes a substantial amount of electricity (often powered by fossil fuels) and water - each query uses a quarter of a liter of water. AI is currently responsible for 3.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, surpassing even the aviation sector.
Misinformation and disinformation era
Gerd Leonhard also shared his opinion on challenges posed by misinformation and disinformation in the modern era.
“One of the major concerns is that we struggle to make decisions because we’re not always sure what information is accurate. How much do you worry that, as we work to create a better world, we may not be able to access the right information,” notes the CEO of The Futures Agency.
The speaker notes that in the past, during the Silk Road times, strangers were welcomed by the news they brought, but rumors, the "deep fakes" of that time, also posed dangers. This dual nature of information networks remains today, as they can be beneficial on good days but catastrophic on bad days.
He highlighted the challenges of correcting misinformation, noting that the ability to analyze and verify information is now more critical than ever.
Shift from quantity to quality
Rae Kwon Chung, Nobel Laureate in Green Economy, Director of Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better World (South Korea) highlighted the growing chaos and disruption in the world and identified key factors contributing to it.
The speaker argued that the current systems driving modernization, free market capitalism and liberal democracy, are reaching the limits of their effectiveness. While these systems have been highly successful in increasing production and expanding voter freedom, they have failed to improve the quality of life.
Kwon Chung emphasizes that the focus must now shift from quantity to quality.
“We are entering a new phase, and we need fresh imagination to redesign the free-market system to be more focused on quality. This also applies to technology and political systems. This new imagination cannot come from past knowledge and textbooks; we must develop new ideas. It can only emerge from a new value system, a new purpose, and a clear vision of what we want for the future,” notes the Nobel Laureate.
