Four races left in F1 2026: Who can still win, and what’s at stake?

The season enters its final stretch following a dramatic Mexico City Grand Prix⁠, where 20-year-old Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli became the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history.

But with 100 points still available to each driver across the remaining four Grands Prix, several important questions remain unanswered.

Is Antonelli’s world title guaranteed?

Yes. Antonelli has mathematically secured the 2026 Drivers’ Championship, meaning no other driver can overtake him, regardless of the results in the remaining races.

According to the official Formula 1 standings⁠, the Italian leads with 380 points, compared with Verstappen’s 261.

With a maximum of 100 points available, Verstappen could finish the season with no more than 361 points, even if he wins every remaining race and Antonelli fails to score again.

Antonelli secured his maiden championship by finishing third in Mexico, behind Verstappen and Hamilton. He needed only ninth place to clinch the title, but instead celebrated his historic achievement on the podium.

The result also made him the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history, surpassing Sebastian Vettel’s long-standing record.

For Antonelli, the remaining races are no longer about securing the championship. Instead, they offer an opportunity to add to his victories and help Mercedes pursue the Constructors’ Championship.

Five drivers, two podium places: Who has the advantage?

While Antonelli is untouchable at the top, the fight for second and third place remains remarkably close.

The Drivers’ Championship standings⁠ after 19 rounds show: Just two points separate Verstappen and Hamilton, making their rivalry the closest contest heading into Brazil.

Verstappen has momentum on his side. The Red Bull driver won the races in Bahrain, Singapore and Mexico, securing three victories in the last four Grands Prix.

His latest triumph was particularly significant. Starting fifth in Mexico, Verstappen recovered to take victory, holding off Hamilton by just 0.799 seconds.

Hamilton, however, remains within striking distance. A victory for the Ferrari driver in Brazil, combined with a second-place finish for Verstappen, would put Hamilton five points ahead in the standings.

Russell is also firmly in contention. The Mercedes driver trails Verstappen by 11 points, while Leclerc sits another five points behind.

For Leclerc, the challenge is particularly interesting because he is not only chasing Verstappen and Russell but also competing against his Ferrari teammate Hamilton.

Norris faces a more difficult task. At 40 points behind Verstappen, the McLaren driver remains mathematically eligible for second place, but would need a substantial turnaround over the final four races.

What would it take to change the standings?

Under the Formula 1 points system⁠, the top 10 finishers in a Grand Prix receive points, with 25 awarded for victory, 18 for second place and 15 for third.

This creates several scenarios that could dramatically change the championship order as early as the Brazilian Grand Prix.

If Hamilton wins and Verstappen finishes second, the Ferrari driver would move into second place overall.

If Russell wins and Verstappen finishes fifth, Russell would overtake the Dutchman by four points, assuming the other drivers’ results do not affect that comparison.

Leclerc could also move ahead of Verstappen with a victory if the Red Bull driver finishes sixth or lower.

However, a single race will not necessarily decide the final order. With four rounds remaining, consistency could prove just as important as outright speed. A retirement or a race without points could erase an advantage built over several weekends.

Four races, four different challenges

The final four rounds will take Formula 1 from South America to the United States and the Middle East, with each circuit presenting different challenges for drivers and teams.

According to the official 2026 Formula 1 calendar⁠, the remaining races are:

• Brazil, Nov. 6-8: The São Paulo Grand Prix at Interlagos is known for its elevation changes, unpredictable weather and opportunities for overtaking. Rain could make the championship battle particularly unpredictable.

• Las Vegas, Nov. 19-21: The street circuit features long straights, heavy braking zones and cool nighttime conditions. Straight-line speed and tire preparation could be decisive.

• Qatar, Nov. 27-29: The Lusail circuit features high-speed corners that place considerable demands on tires. Consistency, tire management and qualifying performance will be crucial.

• Abu Dhabi, Dec. 4-6: The season finale at Yas Marina could determine the final positions in both championships if the battles remain unresolved.

The FIA’s official Sprint calendar⁠ confirms that none of these four weekends includes a Sprint race. That leaves a maximum of 100 points available per driver and 172 points per team.

Mercedes vs. Ferrari: Is the Constructors’ Championship over?

Unlike the Drivers’ Championship, the Constructors’ Championship has not yet been mathematically decided.

The official team standings⁠ place Mercedes comfortably ahead of Ferrari:

Mercedes holds a 126-point advantage over Ferrari, but 172 points remain available to each team across the final four races.

Ferrari therefore retains a mathematical chance of winning the title, although it would require an exceptional finish to the season and significant setbacks for Mercedes.

Mercedes could secure the championship as early as Brazil. If it leaves São Paulo more than 129 points ahead of Ferrari, the Italian team would be unable to close the gap through points alone over the final three races.

For Ferrari, the challenge is particularly demanding. Hamilton and Leclerc must maximize their results while competing against each other for positions in the Drivers’ Championship.

Another battle is developing behind the leading teams.

Red Bull has 382 points, just 17 more than McLaren. Unlike the fight for the championship, this contest could remain close until the final round.

With Verstappen showing strong form, Red Bull has an advantage in the drivers’ standings, but the Constructors’ Championship rewards the combined results of both drivers. That means the performances of Isack Hadjar, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could prove crucial to the final team rankings.

Who is most likely to finish second?

Based on the current standings and recent performances, Verstappen enters the final four races as a narrow favorite for second place.

His three victories in the last four Grands Prix suggest Red Bull has become increasingly competitive in the closing stages of the season.

However, Hamilton’s two-point deficit means the battle remains effectively open. The seven-time world champion does not need a dramatic comeback; a single strong weekend could put him ahead.

Russell and Leclerc are also close enough to challenge, particularly if the two leading contenders lose points through mistakes, reliability problems or incidents.

Norris remains an outside contender, but his 40-point deficit makes a second-place finish significantly more difficult.

These are assessments based on recent results and championship positions rather than statistically calculated probabilities. The different characteristics of the remaining circuits also make it difficult to predict which team will perform best at every round.

Why the final four races still matter

Although Antonelli’s championship victory has removed the biggest question from the 2026 season, several compelling storylines remain.

Verstappen is seeking to finish as the closest challenger to the driver who ended his hopes of another world title. Hamilton has an opportunity to secure second place in the championship with Ferrari, while Russell and Leclerc could still disrupt their battle.

For Mercedes, the priority is to turn Antonelli’s individual success into a team championship. Ferrari, meanwhile, must balance the ambitions of its two drivers with the need to close a substantial gap in the constructors’ standings.

And with Red Bull and McLaren separated by only 17 points, even the battle for third among the teams could deliver surprises.

The next chapter begins in São Paulo on Nov. 6-8, where the first of the remaining four races could significantly reshape the standings.

Earlier, Qazinform reported⁠ that Antonelli was on the verge of becoming Formula 1’s youngest world champion ahead of the Mexico City Grand Prix. The Italian subsequently secured the historic title with four races to spare.