Earth’s population has surpassed the planet’s sustainable carrying capacity
The global human population has already exceeded the level that Earth can sustainably support, according to a study by an international team of scientists published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, Qazinform News Agency reports.
According to the study, humanity has entered a phase in which further population growth is accompanied by a slowdown in growth rates and increasing pressure on natural resources. The turning point occurred as early as the mid-20th century, and since 1970 the planet has been operating in a state of so-called “ecological deficit,” when consumption exceeds the biosphere’s capacity.
As noted in the research, the current development model, based on intensive resource use and fossil fuels, temporarily sustains high living standards but creates long-term risks for ecosystem stability.
“The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources,” the study states.
According to the researchers, the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076, although the sustainable level is significantly lower. At current consumption levels, an ecologically safe population is estimated at around 2–3 billion people.
The authors also identified a strong link between population growth and key indicators of global change, including temperature, emissions, and ecological footprint. At the same time, population growth itself, rather than per capita consumption alone, was found to be a more significant driver of environmental pressure.
“Population size is a stronger predictor of the variation in the indices of global change than rising per capita consumption rate,” the researchers note.
Despite this, the study emphasizes that the situation is not without solutions: a transition to more sustainable consumption patterns, reduced inequality, and more efficient resource use could mitigate the consequences of current demographic pressure.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that the 20th edition of Earth Hour had begun in New Zealand, launching a global wave of symbolic lights-out events aimed at raising awareness about climate change.
