Earth at risk of geomagnetic storms as multiple CMEs approach
Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are forecast to reach Earth from early Sept. 8 into Sept. 9, potentially causing minor geomagnetic storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Qazinform News Agency reports.
SWPC has issued a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch for Sept. 8, based on forecasts that several CMEs observed in recent days could reach Earth around the same time. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become unsettled to active on Sept. 8-9, with periods of minor storms likely. There is also a slight chance of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions.
Forecasters said there is low confidence in the exact arrival time of the CMEs and the strength of their effects.
Solar wind conditions were already elevated on Sept. 7 ahead of the expected CME arrivals. Further increases are expected on Sept. 8-9 as the CMEs reach Earth.
The strength of any resulting geomagnetic storm will depend partly on the magnetic fields carried by the CMEs when they reach Earth. Certain conditions can cause a stronger interaction with Earth’s magnetic field and lead to more intense storms.
At G1 levels, minor effects, including small power-grid fluctuations and impacts on satellites, are possible. Auroras could also become visible farther from the polar regions. If G2 conditions develop, these effects could become more noticeable.
SWPC said energetic particle levels near Earth declined toward normal levels on Sept. 7 but could rise again on Sept. 8-9 if the forecast CMEs arrive as expected.
A separate large and fast-moving CME observed leaving the Sun’s east side at about 02:00 UTC on Sept. 7 was identified as a far-side event and is not expected to affect Earth.
The main uncertainty over the next 24-48 hours is the timing and interaction of the incoming CMEs and the strength of their magnetic fields.
Solar activity is expected to remain low, with occasional C-class flares and a slight chance of M-class flares through Sept. 9.
Previously, Qazinform News Agency reported that Earth experienced a G1 geomagnetic storm on Feb. 5.
