Why 2023 was a turning point for renewable energy - and what comes next

According to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), key energy indicators assessed – wind power capacity factors, solar photovoltaic capacity factors, a hydropower proxy, and energy degree days (used to estimate the energy demand required for heating or cooling based on outdoor temperature variations) exhibited significant geographic variability in 2023, highlighting the value of climate intelligence for the energy sector, with tools such as the C3S seasonal forecast as an example.

The report also highlights that climate anomalies had a direct impact on electricity production and consumption, making the adaptation of energy systems a critical priority.

It further stresses that achieving the ambitious targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 will require a multifaceted approach.

Climate change and record growth

Last year was the warmest on record, with the global average temperature rising 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. In 2023, the shift from La Niña to a fully developed El Niño phase has altered essential climatic variables, including wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature.

As a result:

· In South America, solar power generation increased by 3.9%, adding 3.5 TWh to the region’s electricity production.

· In East Asia, wind power contributed an additional 45 TWh of electricity, with 95% of this capacity coming from China.

· In Brazil, hydropower generation declined by 30–40%, forcing the country to compensate for the shortfall with solar and wind power.

Despite these challenges, the renewable energy sector continued its rapid expansion. Global wind power capacity exceeded 1,000 GW, marking a 13% increase from 2022, while solar energy capacity surpassed hydropower for the first time, reaching 1,420 GW (+32%).

Understanding large-scale climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña is essential for energy resilience. The 2023 shift to El Niño led to higher solar power generation in South America and increased wind energy in East Asia. Better forecasting of these climate drivers can help optimize energy production, anticipate demand shifts, and strengthen grid stability.

Electricity markets must adapt

According to the report, adapting electricity market structures is crucial for a successful transition from centralized to decentralized power systems. Flexible market mechanisms should ensure the efficient procurement of high-value renewable resources while integrating solutions for system balancing and adaptability.

One key solution is a dual procurement system, which supports both renewable resource optimization and deployment of flexible resources, offering a promising approach to achieving this goal. Moreover, regional cooperation is vital for balancing energy supply and demand across borders. Collaborative efforts can maximize renewable energy potential, enhance grid stability and build resilient energy systems.

The potential of renewables for developing countries

Developing nations have enormous potential for renewable energy expansion, yet much of it remains untapped. For instance, despite abundant renewable energy resources, Africa accounts for only 2% of global installed capacity.

By integrating resource potential with climate information, countries can effectively develop renewable energy infrastructure to support industrialization and economic growth, accelerating sustainable development across the continent.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest Electricity 2025 report, predicted that the renewable energy sector in the UAE and across the Middle East will experience significant growth in the coming years.