What will happen to gold in 2026

The year 2025 was nothing short of historic. Gold surged more than 60 percent and set over 50 new price records, driven by geoeconomic tensions, a weaker dollar, and strong demand from investors and central banks.

According to the report, the baseline scenario points to stable macroeconomic conditions and limited price fluctuations. However, alternative scenarios suggest more pronounced movements:

Moderate growth (upside potential of 5 to 15 percent)
A slowdown in the U.S. economy, lower interest rates, and a weaker dollar could boost demand for safe haven assets, supporting gold prices.

Strong growth (upside potential of 15 to 30 percent)
In the event of a deep global downturn and heightened geopolitical tensions, gold could see a sharp rally. Analysts refer to this as a “doom loop”, a chain reaction triggered by worsening market expectations.

Price decline (down 5 to 20 percent)
If U.S. economic policy accelerates growth and inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve to raise rates, the dollar would strengthen, weighing on gold. Investors may then shift toward higher yielding assets.

Central bank demand remains a major structural support. Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, many countries continue diversifying their reserves in favor of gold.

Another factor is the recycling market. Despite elevated prices, secondary supply remains modest due to the growing practice of pledging gold jewelry in India, which temporarily limits the return of metal to the market.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that gold had climbed to a six week high amid rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in December. Spot gold rose 0.6 percent to 4,255.98 dollars per ounce, while U.S. gold futures reached 4,290.70 dollars. Silver also set a new record, hitting 57.86 dollars per ounce.