Up to $6 billion in six years: World Bank unveils plans for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, met with representatives of the World Bank Group to discuss the new Country Partnership Framework for 2026-2031. It was also reported that the World Bank is ready to provide Kazakhstan with up to $1 billion annually over six years. In what form would this support be provided - concessional loans, grants, or blended financing?

First, it is important to emphasize that the Country Partnership Framework for 2026-2031 is a strategic planning document that defines areas of cooperation rather than a fixed financial commitment, and it is currently under intensive consultation with various stakeholders in Kazakhstan and international partners. The indicative figure reflects the potential level of support, subject to demand from the Government of Kazakhstan and the readiness of specific projects.

The main financing instrument for the Government remains sovereign lending from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, part of the World Bank Group. This financing is provided on favorable terms, with long maturities and flexible financial conditions. Support can take various forms, including investment projects, results-based program financing, development policy operations, and guarantee instruments.

Given Kazakhstan’s upper-middle-income status, the new framework also envisages a growing role for private sector investments by the International Finance Corporation and guarantees from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. These instruments help mobilize private capital through direct investments, risk mitigation, political risk insurance, and credit enhancement mechanisms.

Grant financing may also be available, but on a limited scale. Overall, the new strategy is not merely a financing program, but a comprehensive platform to support Kazakhstan’s ambitious reform agenda and long-term economic resilience.

What will be the key priorities under the new Country Partnership Framework with Kazakhstan for 2026-2031? Which sectors are expected to receive the main share of financing?

The new partnership strategy is designed to support Kazakhstan’s transition toward a more diversified, sustainable, and competitive growth model.

Key priorities include infrastructure modernization, particularly in transport and logistics, development of the energy sector, and the upgrading of municipal and water infrastructure. Significant attention will also be given to the sustainable management of natural resources.

Strengthening public institutions remains another important pillar, including improvements in fiscal policy, greater efficiency of public spending, improvements to the investment climate, expanded access to finance, and support for private sector development. The strategy also reflects Kazakhstan’s important regional role in Central Asia. Many operations are expected to contribute both to national development goals and to the provision of regional and global public goods, including renewable energy and energy market development, water resource management, regional connectivity, and related sectors.

The largest share of financing will traditionally go to large-scale infrastructure projects, such as roads, railways, municipal services, and irrigation systems, given their high investment needs and strong multiplier effects on the economy. At the same time, the World Bank Group will continue to provide analytical and advisory support for institutional reforms and human capital development.

Overall, the new strategy is a strategic partnership platform aimed at supporting Kazakhstan’s ambitious reform agenda and strengthening long-term economic sustainability.

The World Bank has recently published its Global Economic Prospects report for 2026. The report notes that growth in the Europe and Central Asia region is expected to slow or remain broadly unchanged. What are the main factors underlying this forecast?

Indeed, growth in Europe and Central Asia is projected to remain broadly unchanged in 2026, at around 2.4%, before edging up slightly in 2027. The relatively subdued outlook reflects a combination of weaker external demand, persistent geopolitical tensions, and elevated trade policy uncertainty, which continue to weigh on exports and private investment across the region.

A key factor underpinning the forecast is sluggish growth in major trading partners, particularly the euro area. This is the single largest external drag weighing on ECA exports, notably in Central Europe and the Western Balkans.

At the same time, heightened trade frictions and policy uncertainty since 2025 have disrupted trade flows and weakened business confidence across the region. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have further constrained cross-border investment and kept risk premiums elevated in ECA countries.

On the other hand, solid domestic demand driven by easing inflation, rising private consumption, increased absorption of EU funds, elevated defense spending, and an expected rebound in some countries, notably Türkiye, supports the region and explains why the projection is steady rather than pointing to a sharp slowdown.

To what extent does this trend apply to the countries of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan? Does the region have internal growth drivers capable of offsetting external risks?

For Central Asia, growth is expected to moderate but remain comparatively resilient. The subregion has benefited in recent years from strong public spending, robust remittance inflows, and higher commodity production.

In 2026, however, growth in Central Asian economies is projected to ease to around 4.5-5% on average, reflecting softer external demand, tighter fiscal conditions in some countries, and lower momentum in commodity exports. Remittance-dependent economies, including the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, face risks from slower growth in key partner countries, in particular Russia, and from exchange rate pressures. At the same time, higher gold prices should help support activity in Uzbekistan.

In Kazakhstan, we expect growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and then moderate further in line with the economy’s long-term growth potential, as oil production stabilizes. Domestic demand, supported by steady increases in real wages, continued expansion in consumer credit, and investment activity by state-owned enterprises, is projected to remain resilient. On the upside, the government has announced new projects to develop energy, manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and critical minerals, following substantive efforts to attract new foreign direct investment in line with the National Infrastructure Plan. In the medium term, if implemented in a timely and efficient manner, these efforts can help boost productivity and strengthen the economy’s long-term growth potential.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, and representatives of the World Bank Group held talks on the development of a new Country Partnership Framework for 2026 to 2031.