Two points from history: Kimi Antonelli could become F1’s youngest-ever champion this week

Antonelli heads into the 19th round of the 2026 season with 365 points, following his victory at the United States Grand Prix in Austin on October 25. His advantage over Mercedes teammate George Russell stands at 123 points, while Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton is 124 points behind.

Verstappen, who has won four consecutive world titles from 2021 to 2024, and Leclerc have lost their mathematical chances of taking the 2026 crown. However, both will remain key figures in the remaining races as they pursue victories and seek to improve their final championship positions.

If Antonelli secures the championship in Mexico City, he will break a record that has stood for 16 years, becoming the youngest Formula 1 world champion in history. The milestone would mark a remarkable achievement for a driver who is competing in only his second season in the sport.

From karting prodigy to Mercedes title contender

Born in Bologna on August 25, 2006, Antonelli joined Mercedes’ junior programme in 2019, aged 12. The team identified him as a promising talent and supported his progression through the junior racing categories.

His rise was rapid. Antonelli won the Italian and German Formula 4 championships in 2022, followed by titles in the Formula Regional Middle East and European championships in 2023. In 2024, he moved directly into Formula 2, bypassing Formula 3, before making his Formula 1 debut with Mercedes in 2025.

His promotion came as Mercedes prepared for Lewis Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari, placing the young Italian alongside George Russell. Antonelli’s rookie season included three podium finishes, but his second campaign has transformed him from a promising prospect into a leading championship contender.

The 2026 season has seen Antonelli establish himself at the front of the field. His nine Grand Prix victories and 15 podiums have helped him build a commanding lead in the drivers’ standings, while Mercedes has also strengthened its position in the constructors’ championship.

His latest victory in Austin brought him closer to a title that could be decided before the final four rounds of the season. Russell finished eighth, while Hamilton crossed the line fourth, leaving both with a substantial points deficit.

A record that has stood since 2010

The record Antonelli could break belongs to Sebastian Vettel, who became the youngest Formula 1 world champion at the 2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

Vettel was 23 years and 134 days old when he secured his first title with Red Bull on November 14, 2010. Lewis Hamilton ranks second on the all-time list, having won his first championship with McLaren in 2008 at 23 years and 300 days. Fernando Alonso claimed his first title in 2005 at the age of 24.

Antonelli, born on August 25, 2006, will be 20 years and 68 days old on Nov. 1, the date of the Mexican Grand Prix.

If he clinches the championship that day, he will become the first 20-year-old to win the Formula 1 drivers’ title and set a new benchmark for youth in the sport. He would also become Italy’s first Formula 1 world champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953.

The circumstances would make the achievement particularly striking. Vettel secured his first title in the final race of the 2010 season, while Antonelli could settle the 2026 championship with four rounds still remaining.

What does Antonelli need to win the title in Mexico?

The mathematics are straightforward. Antonelli needs just two additional points to make the championship mathematically unreachable for his remaining rivals. Under the current points system, a ninth-place finish earns two points.

There is another route to the title: Antonelli would also become champion if neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the Mexican Grand Prix.

Following the United States round, Russell has 242 points and Hamilton has 241. With a maximum of 125 points still available across the remaining five Grands Prix, both remain mathematically capable of catching Antonelli only under a combination of exceptional results for themselves and a complete failure by the championship leader to score.

The Mexican Grand Prix will take place from October 30 to November 1 at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City. The 4.304-kilometer circuit is known for its long main straight, technical sections and stadium complex. The city’s high altitude also creates challenges for cooling, aerodynamics and engine performance.

The weekend schedule includes two practice sessions on Friday, October 30, followed by a third practice session and qualifying on Saturday, October 31. The Grand Prix is scheduled for Sunday, November 1, with the race covering 71 laps.

Qualifying could prove important in determining the outcome, as track position and tyre management can influence strategy. Even with the championship within reach, Antonelli cannot treat the weekend as a formality. A difficult qualifying session, a strategic error or an incident during the race could delay his title celebrations.

Verstappen and Leclerc: What remains to fight for?

While Antonelli approaches a historic milestone, two of Formula One’s most prominent drivers, Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, have lost their mathematical chance of winning the 2026 drivers’ championship.

Verstappen, a four-time world champion, has 236 points, while Leclerc has 233. With the remaining points available insufficient to catch Antonelli, neither can win this year’s title.

Their elimination from the championship fight does not mean their seasons are over. Both drivers can still pursue Grand Prix victories, podium finishes and improvements in the final standings. Their performances could also influence the remaining title battle by taking points away from Antonelli, Russell and Hamilton.

Leclerc finished second in Austin, demonstrating Ferrari’s ability to challenge Mercedes on race day, while Verstappen secured third. Their pace could be relevant again in Mexico, where the circuit’s characteristics and altitude may affect the competitive balance between teams.

The constructors’ championship remains another major storyline. Mercedes leads the standings with 607 points, compared with Ferrari’s 474 after the United States Grand Prix. The remaining rounds will give both teams opportunities to strengthen their positions.

What happens if Antonelli becomes champion early?

If Antonelli secures the title in Mexico, the remaining four Grands Prix - Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi - will go ahead as scheduled. The championship would be decided, but the season would not end.

Antonelli would continue racing for Mercedes, with opportunities to add victories to his tally and help his team secure the constructors’ championship. The remaining races would also determine the final positions in the drivers’ standings and provide other teams with opportunities to finish the season strongly.

A Mexican Grand Prix victory would be an emphatic way to secure the title, but it is not necessary. Antonelli could become champion with a lower points-scoring finish, provided the championship calculations fall in his favour.

If he fails to secure the required result, the title fight will continue into the next round, the São Paulo Grand Prix in Brazil, scheduled for Nov. 6-8. The subsequent rounds are Las Vegas on Nov. 19-21, Qatar on Nov. 27-29 and Abu Dhabi on Dec. 4-6.

For Formula 1, the stakes extend beyond the identity of the champion. Antonelli’s potential achievement would mark a remarkable rise from junior racing to the top of the sport in just his second season. If he secures the title on November 1, Mexico City will become the setting for a new chapter in the championship’s history - and a record that could stand for decades.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that George Russell topped the opening practice session ahead of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, with Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc finishing second and third, respectively.