Strong El Niño to reshape global weather in coming months, WMO warns
El Niño is expected to intensify during the August-October 2026 period, bringing above-normal temperatures across much of the world and significant shifts in rainfall patterns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, Qazinform News Agency reports.
According to the latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are forecast to exceed 2.9°C above average in key monitoring regions, confirming that a strong El Niño is developing. The climate pattern is also expected to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic waters, increasing the risk of droughts, floods and wildfires in many regions, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts above-average temperatures across most land areas worldwide, with the strongest signals covering Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.
Rainfall patterns are expected to reflect a typical strong El Niño event. Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N, and southeastern South America. Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are more likely across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the strengthening El Niño is intensifying the effects of an already warming planet, while WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed that seasonal forecasts provide governments and communities with an opportunity to prepare for potential impacts before they unfold.
The WMO is expanding coordination, climate information services and early warning support for governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities to help countries anticipate and minimize the impacts of El Niño.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years and typically lasts between 9 and 12 months. It is one of the main drivers of year-to-year climate variability and often has far-reaching impacts on global temperatures and precipitation.
Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that Australia had raised the alarm about the risk of an extreme El Niño, warning that it could intensify in the second half of 2026 and potentially become one of the strongest events in more than 70 years.