Philippine's population projected to reach around 138.67 mln by 2055

The statistics agency based its projections on the 2020 census-based national population using three TFR scenarios. Total fertility rate means the average number of children born to a woman, usually referring to women aged 15 to 49 over their lifetime.

For the first scenario, the TFR for years 2021 and 2022 is estimated to be at 1.9 children per woman based on the results of the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey and assumed to rebound to a TFR of 2.1 children, which is the replacement level, from 2025 until 2055.

The second scenario assumes a slow decline from 2.1 children per woman in 2020 to 1.9 children in 2021 and 2022 and 1.9 children from 2025 until 2055. The third scenario assumes a continuous TFR decline at 1.7 children by 2055.

"The Philippine population is projected to increase for the next 35 years across different TFR scenarios," the PSA said, adding that projections from the second scenario is recommended for utilization in policy and programming purposes.

Under the second scenario, the PSA said that the Philippine midyear population is projected to reach 138.67 million by 2055. "In a span of 35 years, around 29.47 million people will be added to the projected midyear population of 109.20 million in 2020," the agency said.

"The average annual growth rate is estimated to decline from 0.84 percent for 2020-2025 to 0.35 percent for 2050-2055," the PSA added.

The population aged 60 and over comprised about 8.5 percent of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage share of this age group is expected to increase to about 19.6 percent of the projected midyear population in 2055.

The percentage of children under 5 is estimated to decrease from 10.2 percent in 2020 to 6.0 percent in 2055.

Females of childbearing ages 15 to 49 comprised about 25.6 percent of the midyear population in 2020. The percentage of this age group is projected to decrease slightly to 23.3 percent in 2055.

The PSA said the working-age population, 15 to 64 years old, accounted for 64.0 percent of the midyear population in 2020. "This group is expected to comprise 67.0 percent of the projected midyear population by 2055," it added.