Oil producers to discuss output freeze at June OPEC meeting
PARIS. KAZINFORM - Oil-producing nations will discuss an oil output freeze at OPEC's meeting in June, a senior Saudi oil adviser said on Thursday, keeping open the prospect of action to boost prices despite the collapse of talks on a deal in Doha.
The deal, in the making since February, had helped oil prices to rise from a 12-year low reached in January, Arab News reported.
"Even though there was no agreement, the door for future cooperation remains open, and there sure will be further discussion at the next OPEC meeting in June," Ibrahim Al-Muhanna told an oil conference in Paris.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah El-Badri, speaking at the same conference, said some ministers may bring up the production freeze issue in June, but that it was not on the OPEC secretariat's agenda. The OPEC meeting is on June 2.
"Maybe the ministers will discuss it," he told reporters.
Other OPEC officials are still trying to get a deal. Nigeria's oil minister told Reuters he will hold talks with Saudi Arabia, Iran and other producers by May, hoping to reach an agreement in June.
Oil prices initially fell on Monday after the collapse of the Doha talks. But Brent crude has since risen, reaching a 2016 high of $46.18 a barrel on Thursday, on signs that a supply glut which has weighed on prices may be easing.
Even without a producer deal, both oil officials said there were signs of a stronger market.
"Doha or no Doha, we see that the market is turning," Al-Badri said. "Maybe demand will be more than supply, and we see that the market by 2017 will turn around and it will be positive."
The Saudi adviser was confident that production may be declining under market forces.
"The total supply decrease may be as high as 1 million barrels a day in the second half of this year," Al-Muhanna said. "This decrease is expected to continue next year."
Consumer countries should not rejoice about the current low oil price environment, which may increase instability and threaten the viability of key industries, he added.
"Low oil prices is a negative sum game, by that I mean everybody is losing," he said.
Meanwhile, Russia should use an average oil price of $40 per barrel as the benchmark for its 2017-2019 budgets, the Economy Ministry said on Thursday, giving in to Finance Ministry arguments for fiscal caution.
A slide in oil prices and Western sanctions have pushed Russia into recession, complicating the Finance Ministry's task of keeping the budget deficit manageable.
The Economy Ministry last week submitted forecasts that proposed a base budget scenario in which oil prices rose to $45 per barrel next year and $50 in 2018-2019, an official in policy-making circles said. But it has since bowed to the Finance Ministry's pressure.
"The lower the price (in the forecast), the better for the (Finance) Ministry," the source said. "Spending is cut automatically."
Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev presented the forecasts as prudent, although his ministry has often backed more government spending to stimulate the economy.
"I believe the base scenario has a healthy dose of conservatism," he said in televised comments.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said conservatism was justified.
"It is better to lean in projections towards understating potential revenues than later try to find additional reserves to balance the budget," Medvedev said.
The Finance Ministry considers $40 per barrel of oil "a realistic level for the next three years", Vladimir Kolychev, head of the ministry's long-term forecasting department, told reporters.