National Bank raises base rate to 18%

In September, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9% (in August – 12.2%), having surpassed the National Bank’s forecast.

“Food remains the main driver of inflation, with prices rising by 12.7%. Certain food categories are becoming more expensive at an accelerated pace, largely due to increased production costs and higher import prices. Service inflation also makes a significant contribution (15.3%), driven by rising costs of regulated services (30.4%) as well as several market-based services. Non-food inflation is accelerating, having reached 10.8%. Fuel prices rose by 11.9% over the year, with a 3.4% increase recorded in September alone. Monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% (1.0% in August). Core and seasonally adjusted inflation indicators also saw notable increase - to 1.2% (previously 1.1%) and 1.3% (previously 1.2%), respectively. This trend points to the persistent nature of inflation and the gradual emergence of secondary effects in price dynamics,” an official statement from the National Bank reads.

The financial regulator notes that external inflationary pressures persist, with growing risks primarily originating from global food markets. Record-high price rise in meat and vegetable oil has been observed in recent years. Amid active export activity, these trends are contributing to rising domestic prices.

According to the National Bank, economic growth accelerated to 6.5% year-on-year for the period from January to August 2025, compared to 3.7% during the same period in 2024. High growth paces persist in transportation and warehousing (+21.5%), construction (+18.1%), and trade (+8.9%), as well as in the mining (+9.6%) and manufacturing industries (+6.5%).