Meetings in Dushanbe: Integration with a plus sign

Central Asia — Russia

These days, Dushanbe is becoming one of the centers of geopolitics in the architecture of the multipolar world. Both meetings — the one where the Central Asian Five will communicate with Russia, and the equally important negotiations of the CIS heads of state — form a pragmatic pattern of Eurasian partnership. The parties need each other and demonstrate genuine interest in deepening cooperation.

In this context, the “Central Asia–Russia” summit is an important integration track. The first meeting within this format, it should be recalled, took place in October 2022 in Astana.

Several key priorities were discussed during those negotiations.

The first was security. The issues of joint efforts against terrorism, extremism, the illegal trafficking of weapons and drugs, as well as countering various hybrid threats and the situation in Afghanistan were discussed.

The second was the economy. Measures to support small and medium-sized businesses, launch joint projects in energy, industry, transport and logistics, agriculture, and digitalization were discussed.

The third was transport and transit. The specifics of operations under the conditions of disrupted traditional logistics chains were considered. Other relevant topics were also raised.

It should be said that the “CA–Russia” format does not replace the existing Eurasian integration platforms but complements them.

“The ‘Central Asia–Russia’ format has the potential to become not just a platform for political signaling, but a tool for the rapid implementation of infrastructural and regulatory solutions. Its strength lies in the closeness of agendas and the ability to promptly address issues of transport, energy, migration, and technical regulation without long bureaucratic chains,” comments political analyst, Director of the Eurasian Monitoring Center, Alibek Tazhibayev.

According to the expert, Moscow’s growing interest in Central Asia is explained not only by foreign policy challenges but also by mature mutual economic ties. Sanctions turbulence has accelerated the reorientation of trade and technological chains, and the region has become for Russia a nearby platform for industrial cooperation, logistical bypass routes, and mutual market access.

“At the same time, this is not about a temporary ‘import substitution’, but about a deeper linkage: energy systems and pipeline infrastructure date back to Soviet times; the ‘North–South’ and ‘East–West’ transport corridors physically converge in Central Asia; millions of labor migrants form stable cash flows and demand for financial services. Geopolitics adds motivation and speed, but the core remains pragmatic calculation: the closer circle is more reliable, transaction costs are lower, and economies of scale are achieved faster than through distant chains,” emphasizes Tazhibayev.

The issue of security is no less important. According to the political scientist, Afghanistan as a stable belt to the south is valuable both for Russia and for the region’s states, which encourages coordination not only in the security sphere but also in infrastructure, energy, and humanitarian projects.

The multipolar architecture

Central Asia and Russia are close partners, bound by thousands of invisible threads. Economic statistics speak best to this. The total trade turnover between the CA countries and Russia in 2024 amounted to USD 44.7 billion, which is 11.3% higher than in 2023.

Among successful projects are the transit of Russian gas through Kazakhstan to Central Asian states, the construction and modernization of electric power facilities, the development of international transport corridors, and the reconstruction and expansion of highway and railway networks.

“To realize this potential, internal political coordination among the five countries is required, as well as the removal of non-tariff barriers, institutional strengthening of sectoral secretariats, and most importantly, the reputation of an honest intermediary who diversifies ties with Russia, China, the EU, Türkiye, and the Gulf states without turning multivector policy into a dispersal of resources,” says Tazhibayev.

According to him, in the multipolar world architecture, Central Asia can play the role of a “node of interest coordination” and a supplier of predictability.

“The region has three levers. The first is transit-industrial: not just to carry goods through its territory, but to retain part of the added value through assembly, processing, insurance, clearing, and digital documentation services. The second is energy: balancing between traditional hydrocarbons, nuclear projects, and renewable generation, where Central Asia can act as a testing ground for technological standards and cross-border electricity trade. The third is regulatory: ‘middle states’ benefit when they create convenient rules, unified technical regulations, recognition of electronic certificates, and simplified customs procedures,” the expert lists.

According to Tazhibayev, Central Asia can become an independent Eurasian hub — but only by shifting from the role of a corridor to that of a value integrator.

“This means that dry ports and terminals should have finishing warehouses, light assembly centers, fintech acquiring services for cargo owners, and a single digital document window (e-CMR, e-TIR, electronic certificates of origin). The Caspian direction requires an expansion of the fleet and port capacity, synchronization of ferry and rail schedules; the eastern routes need expanded border bottlenecks and standardized border control, so that transit time becomes predictable rather than record-setting from case to case,” he notes.

The key to autonomy, in his opinion, lies in tariff and regulatory synchronization within the region, the creation of insurance and reinsurance products tailored to corridors, the development of multimodality with guaranteed SLAs, and the training of specialists in supply chain management.

“If this is not done, margins and control over standards will remain with larger neighbors. If it is done, Central Asia will be able to offer the market a ‘door-to-door’ service with clear timing and clear accountability — the kind of service for which a premium is paid,” Tazhibayev concludes.

An equally interesting question is what the activation of diplomacy along the “CA–Russia” track will bring specifically to our country.

Among the benefits, the expert names the expansion of cooperation in mechanical engineering, chemistry, agriculture, and ICT. It also involves joint energy projects, balancing capacities within the unified energy system, and the growth of transit flows that load infrastructure and stimulate service development. Kazakhstan can accelerate production localization by using the demand of the Russian market and joint R&D, while standard unification can reduce business costs.

In general, Central Asia as an independent subject of international politics is today of interest to many countries, as evidenced by the growing demand for dialogue platforms in the “CA Plus” format.

In addition to the “CA–Russia” summit, dialogues are being held in the formats of “CA–China”, “CA–USA”, “CA–Germany”, “CA–EU”, “CA–GCC”, “CA–India”, “CA–Japan”, and “CA–Korea”.

Thus, Central Asia is becoming not only a bridge between Asia and Europe but also a new center of global attraction.

CIS — a relevant format

The CIS summit is another important event hosted these days by Dushanbe. The Commonwealth remains a relevant and highly useful dialogue format. Naturally, the media offer varying assessments of it. Some call the CIS a “divorce office,” referring to its role in the civilized separation of republics after the collapse of the USSR, implying that it has already fulfilled its mission. Others describe it as a “discussion club.”

But even the United Nations is criticized today — though everyone understands that it is irreplaceable.

Likewise, the CIS occupies an important niche in the post-Soviet space, serving as a platform for solving concrete socio-economic issues and maintaining a common humanitarian and informational space.

“After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ‘parade of sovereignties,’ a structure was needed to ensure the functioning of a common space. In this regard, the fact that we have maintained cultural interaction and integration associations within the CIS means that, overall, the Commonwealth has fulfilled its function,” emphasizes Taissiya Marmontova, Associate Professor at Astana International University and Director of the Institute for Regional Integration Studies.

According to her, the Commonwealth of Independent States is one of the integration formats, and labeling it is not the business of experts.

“In a period of geopolitical turbulence and the formation of a multipolar world, multilevel and multidirectional integration structures are needed to ensure more points of contact. I believe that integration and communication are the path out of the geopolitical storm we are witnessing today,” notes the expert.

Expanding boundaries

The Commonwealth of Independent States is not standing still — as reflected by the dynamics of internal trade growth and the launch of new initiatives.

At the CIS Council of Heads of Government meetings in Minsk, it was noted that the total GDP of the Commonwealth grows annually by an average of 4.5%. Over five years, internal trade has increased by 40%. Kazakhstan’s total trade turnover with CIS countries last year amounted to USD 37.3 billion, including a 9.4% increase in trade in services, reaching USD 4.3 billion. These figures will continue to grow as the CIS gradually expands the boundaries of cooperation.

For example, at the October 2024 meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed creating a new platform to expand regional ties — “CIS+,” which, along with the previously established Observer and Partner statuses, would allow further institutional development of the organization.

CIS experts have already agreed on a draft decision regarding the new format and submitted it for consideration at the upcoming CIS summit. It is quite possible that the initiative will be supported these days.

In addition, last year the Head of State proposed launching an intergovernmental program — the “Commonwealth Fair.”

“Fair trade is becoming increasingly relevant. I propose launching an intergovernmental program, ‘Commonwealth Fair,’ within which trade events will be held annually in various cities of the CIS countries, inviting artisans and farmers from across the Eurasian region,” proposed President Tokayev.

Work on implementing this initiative is in full swing. Organizational issues were discussed at the first meeting of the expert group of the CIS Executive Committee at the end of August.

“The first ‘Commonwealth Fair’ will be held in 2026 in Taraz. This is one of the projects that ensures communication, creates opportunities for artisans to showcase their products, promotes trade development, and improves the structure of small and medium-sized businesses,” says Marmontova.

Pure pragmatism

Overall, within the CIS framework, extensive work is being carried out in the economic dimension — trade and economic cooperation, and the development of transport corridors. At Kazakhstan’s initiative, a Concept for linking the main transport arteries passing through the CIS member states has been developed.

The approval of the Concept will be an important step toward the development of a common transport system for the CIS, since despite the many agreements adopted in this field, there has been insufficient synchronization among the member states.

Experts believe this will improve transport connectivity, increase the volume of international transportation, and related revenues for CIS countries. It is noted that for Central Asian states alone, export growth is expected at 18%, while transport costs may be reduced by up to 15%.

In Minsk, CIS heads of government also reviewed the draft Strategy for the Digitalization of Main Multimodal Transport Corridors of the Commonwealth. The goal of the strategy is to optimize logistics processes, reduce costs, and improve the speed and transparency of transport operations.

There, the CIS Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development for 2026–2035 was also approved, as well as the Strategy for Cooperation in the Development of the Information Society and Digital Economy until 2035 and its Action Plan. The Concept of Pricing in Construction Activities of CIS Member States was adopted, along with several other documents — from pest control to cooperation in the nuclear sector.

As we can see, numerous new cooperation mechanisms are being created within the Commonwealth space, designed to deepen trade and economic relations. The 2023 Agreement on Free Trade in Services and Investment Implementation serves this purpose, for example.

“This is one of the agreements that provides better conditions for industrial cooperation, the formation of trade chains, and the creation of a more favorable investment climate. Taking Central Asian countries as an example, we clearly need to attract foreign direct investment. Such agreements help increase the share of intraregional trade, which in turn ensures more efficient GDP growth,” says Marmontova.

The CIS, as we see, remains a sought-after platform for dialogue. The tools accumulated over the years continue to serve the peoples of member states and will further strengthen both the humanitarian and economic space of the Commonwealth.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that the main agenda of the summit will focus on the development of transport infrastructure, energy partnership, migration policy, and cooperation in education. Political experts also noted that the outcomes of the summit may lay the foundation for transforming this format into a sustainable mechanism of regional integration extending beyond the CIS.