Kazakhstan’s National Bank expects economy to expand by 4.5% to 5.5% this year
Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5-5.5% by the end of 2026, according to the country’s National Bank. The forecast was announced during a presentation of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) regional economic outlook, where officials discussed inflation risks, the impact of global economic shocks and the country’s economic prospects, Qazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
IMF experts presented their assessment of the current economic situation in the region and examined key factors that could influence future growth.
Speaking at a press conference, Akylzhan Baimagambetov, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, said that preliminary estimates showed the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) had increased by 4.2% between January and September 2026. Excluding the mining sector, economic growth reached 5.4%.
The main contributions to growth came from manufacturing, construction and the services sector.
The National Bank expects annual economic growth to reach between 4.5% and 5.5%. However, despite a slowdown in annual inflation to 9.2% in October, inflationary pressures remain elevated.
Our decisions continue to be data-driven, and we remain firmly committed to bringing inflation back to the target level of 5%, said Baimagambetov.
Particular attention was also paid to inflationary risks. The National Bank shares the IMF’s assessment that sound public finances and developed financial markets help contain secondary inflationary effects and reduce the costs associated with economic stabilization.
For central banks, one of the most important concerns is the risk that an initial increase in food, energy or transportation prices could spread to other prices and inflation expectations, noted Baimagambetov.
He added that the regulator continues to improve its forecasting and analytical systems, assess monetary policy transmission mechanisms and increase the transparency of its decision-making process.
Participants also highlighted the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies. In this regard, the National Bank and the Government are implementing a joint action program for 2026-2028 aimed at improving policy coordination and ensuring price stability.
Earlier, it was reported that Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.5% between January and October 2026. This represents an acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared with the first nine months of the year. The non-oil sector was the main contributor to growth, expanding by 5.6%.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan also revised its inflation forecast for 2027, raising it from 5.5-7.5% to 6.5-8.5%. National Bank Deputy Chairman Akylzhan Baimagambetov attributed the upward revision partly to the expected increase in the minimum wage and the implementation of the “People’s Construction” program.
On October 23, the National Bank reduced its base interest rate from 16.25% to 15.75% per annum. The decision was driven by slowing inflation and declining inflation expectations among the population. The next scheduled decision on the base rate is expected on December 4.